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UCV vs Portuguesa Prediction— Venezuela - Primera División

Apertura - Quadrangular - 6 ·Saturday, May 30, 2026, 20:00

UCV

PPG 1.88 · HOME

2 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Portuguesa

PPG 0.88 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 51.6% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.1%0-19.8%0-25.2%0-31.9%0-4+0.6%1 1-012.1%1-112.9%1-26.9%1-32.5%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.0%2-18.6%2-24.6%2-31.6%2-4+0.6%3 3-03.5%3-13.8%3-22.0%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-11.7%4+-20.9%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.1% 46.5% 2.15 -5.2%

Draw 28.0% 31.3% 3.20 -6.2%

Away win 27.9% 31.3% 3.20 -6.4%

Over 2.5 46.5% 48.8% 2.05 -4.7%

Over 3.5 27.7% 27.4% 3.65 +0.7%

BTTS 51.6% 55.6% 1.80 -7.1%

Home O1.5 38.2% 45.5% 2.20 -16.0%

Away O1.5 29.0% 34.5% 2.90 -9.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 26 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 77%

BTTS 39%

Score Hit 69%

ROI 18.3%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 25%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-3

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob51.6%

H 44% / xG 1.3-1.1 / U2.5 46% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.9%

#2 0–0 9.1%

#3 1–0 12.1%

#4 2–1 8.6%

#5 2–0 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

UCV1.3

Portuguesa1.1

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.5% · O3.5 PROB 27.7%

Form & verdict PPG

UCV · PPG 1.88

PORTUGUESA · PPG 0.88

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.88) vs P(Home)=44.1%

Win probability 1X2

UCV (H) 44.1%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -5.2%

Draw 28.0%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -6.2%

Portuguesa (A) 27.9%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -6.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

UCV face Portuguesa in Venezuela - Primera División on Saturday, May 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives UCV a 44% chance, the draw 28% and Portuguesa 28%, so UCV are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for UCV and 1.1 for Portuguesa (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, UCV are averaging 1.88 points per game versus 0.88 for Portuguesa. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +0.7%. This match finished 2-3.

UCV vs Portuguesa Prediction— Venezuela - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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