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Carabobo vs E. Merida Prediction— Venezuela - Primera División

Apertura - Quadrangular · Matchday 3 ·Wednesday, May 13, 2026, 23:00

Carabobo

PPG 2.00 · HOME

LAST 5

LWDDL

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

E. Merida

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWDWD

// Model verdict

BTTS 54% chance

Model probability 52.6% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.4%0-16.5%0-23.3%0-31.1%0-4+0.4%1 1-011.1%1-111.3%1-25.7%1-31.9%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.6%2-19.8%2-25.0%2-31.7%2-4+0.5%3 3-05.5%3-15.6%3-22.9%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-03.5%4+-13.6%4+-21.8%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.4% 69.0% 1.45 -25.5%

Draw 25.0% 26.0% 3.85 -2.3%

Away win 23.6% 15.6% 6.40 +30.6%

Over 2.5 52.3% 55.6% 1.80 -5.9%

Over 3.5 29.7% 33.3% 3.00 -6.5%

BTTS 52.6% 54.1% 1.85 -2.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 73 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -5.0%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 34%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.6%

H 51% / xG 1.7-1.0 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.3%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 2–0 9.6%

#4 1–0✓ 11.1%

#5 0–0 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Carabobo1.7

E. Merida1.0

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.3% · O3.5 PROB 29.7%

Form & verdict PPG

CARABOBO · PPG 2.00

E. MERIDA · PPG 1.25

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

Chance this pick lands

54%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.00) > Away AVERAGE (1.25)

Win probability 1X2

Carabobo (H) 51.4%

ODDS 1.45 · IMPLIED 69.0% EV -25.5%

Draw 25.0%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -2.3%

E. Merida (A) 23.6%

ODDS 6.40 · IMPLIED 15.6% EV +30.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Carabobo face E. Merida in Venezuela - Primera División on Wednesday, May 13, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Carabobo a 51% chance, the draw 25% and E. Merida 24%, so Carabobo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Carabobo and 1.0 for E. Merida (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Carabobo are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.25 for E. Merida. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +30.6%. This match finished 1-0.

Carabobo vs E. Merida Prediction— Venezuela - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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