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Carabobo vs E. Merida Prediction— Venezuela - Primera División

Apertura - Quadrangular - 3 ·Wednesday, May 13, 2026, 23:00

Carabobo

PPG 2.00 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

E. Merida

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.6% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.4%0-16.5%0-23.3%0-31.1%0-4+0.4%1 1-011.1%1-111.3%1-25.7%1-31.9%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.6%2-19.8%2-25.0%2-31.7%2-4+0.5%3 3-05.5%3-15.6%3-22.9%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-03.5%4+-13.6%4+-21.8%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.4% 69.0% 1.45 -25.5%

Draw 25.0% 26.0% 3.85 -2.3%

Away win 23.6% 15.6% 6.40 +30.6%

Over 2.5 52.3% 55.6% 1.80 -5.9%

Over 3.5 29.7% 33.3% 3.00 -6.5%

BTTS 52.6% 54.1% 1.85 -2.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 26 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 77%

BTTS 39%

Score Hit 69%

ROI 18.3%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 34%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.6%

H 51% / xG 1.7-1.0 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.3%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 2–0 9.6%

#4 1–0✓ 11.1%

#5 0–0 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Carabobo1.7

E. Merida1.0

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.3% · O3.5 PROB 29.7%

Form & verdict PPG

CARABOBO · PPG 2.00

E. MERIDA · PPG 1.25

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.00) > Away AVERAGE (1.25)

Win probability 1X2

Carabobo (H) 51.4%

ODDS 1.45 · IMPLIED 69.0% EV -25.5%

Draw 25.0%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -2.3%

E. Merida (A) 23.6%

ODDS 6.40 · IMPLIED 15.6% EV +30.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Carabobo face E. Merida in Venezuela - Primera División on Wednesday, May 13, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Carabobo a 51% chance, the draw 25% and E. Merida 24%, so Carabobo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Carabobo and 1.0 for E. Merida (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Carabobo are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.25 for E. Merida. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +30.6%. This match finished 1-0.

Carabobo vs E. Merida Prediction— Venezuela - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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