Carabobo vs E. Merida Prediction & Tips

Venezuela - Primera División Apertura - Quadrangular - 3 Estadio Polideportivo Misael Delgado· Valencia Wednesday, May 13, 2026 23:00

Carabobo PPG 2.00

1-0 HIT CS4

E. Merida PPG 1.25

Away· +30.6% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

52% confidence

Match Result (1X2)

Home 51.4%

Odds: 1.45 EV: -25.5%

Draw 25.0%

Odds: 3.85 EV: -2.3%

Away 23.6%

Odds: 6.40 EV: +30.6%

Model lean: BTTS Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 52.3% Odds: 1.80 -5.9%

Over 3.5 29.7% Odds: 3.00 -6.5%

BTTS 52.6% Odds: 1.85 -2.7%

O2.5 OVER → UNDER ✘ BTTS YES → NO ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 2-1 ✘

3rd 2-0 ✘

4th 1-0 ✔

5th 0-0 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Carabobo

1.73

E. Merida

1.02

Model SuggestionBTTS -2.7% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans BTTS, but EV is -2.7% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Away (+30.6%) — probability too low to qualify.

League Track Record ↗

Based on 26 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5/Under 77%

BTTS/No 39%

Score Hit 69%

ROI 17.3%

Bet Hit 63% (8 bets)

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.00) > Away AVERAGE (1.25)