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Portuguesa vs Puerto Cabello Prediction— Venezuela - Primera División

Apertura - Quadrangular - 4 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 21:30

Portuguesa

PPG 1.88 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Puerto Cabello

PPG 0.88 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 50.2% vs bookmaker-implied 37.7% — a clear edge.

+33.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.4%0-18.4%0-23.4%0-30.9%0-4+0.2%1 1-015.1%1-112.2%1-25.0%1-31.3%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.0%2-18.9%2-23.6%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-05.3%3-14.3%3-21.7%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.7%4+-12.2%4+-20.9%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.2% 37.7% 2.65 +33.0%

Draw 26.2% 33.9% 2.95 -13.6%

Away win 23.6% 38.5% 2.60 -23.2%

Over 2.5 46.2% 45.5% 2.20 +1.6%

Over 3.5 19.3% 25.0% 4.00 -13.7%

BTTS 49.2% 55.6% 1.80 -11.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 26 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 77%

BTTS 39%

Score Hit 69%

ROI 18.3%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 30%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob49.2%

H 50% / xG 1.5-0.8 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.2%

#2 1–0✓ 15.1%

#3 0–0 10.4%

#4 2–0 11.0%

#5 2–1 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Portuguesa1.5

Puerto Cabello0.8

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.2% · O3.5 PROB 19.3%

Form & verdict PPG

PORTUGUESA · PPG 1.88

PUERTO CABELLO · PPG 0.88

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

66%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.88) vs P(Home)=50.2%

Win probability 1X2

Portuguesa (H) 50.2%

ODDS 2.65 · IMPLIED 37.7% EV +33.0%

Draw 26.2%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV -13.6%

Puerto Cabello (A) 23.6%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV -23.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Portuguesa face Puerto Cabello in Venezuela - Primera División on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Portuguesa a 50% chance, the draw 26% and Puerto Cabello 24%, so Portuguesa are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Portuguesa and 0.8 for Puerto Cabello (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Portuguesa are averaging 1.88 points per game versus 0.88 for Puerto Cabello. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +33.0%. This match finished 1-0.

Portuguesa vs Puerto Cabello Prediction— Venezuela - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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