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Carabobo vs D. Tachira Prediction— Venezuela - Primera División

Apertura - Quadrangular - 5 ·Sunday, May 24, 2026, 21:00

Carabobo

PPG 2.11 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

D. Tachira

PPG 1.75 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.1%0-110.2%0-24.7%0-31.4%0-4+0.4%1 1-014.2%1-113.1%1-26.0%1-31.8%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.1%2-18.3%2-23.8%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-03.9%3-13.5%3-21.6%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-11.5%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.0% 45.5% 2.20 +1.2%

Draw 28.9% 33.3% 3.00 -8.0%

Away win 25.1% 31.3% 3.20 -11.8%

Over 2.5 46.2% 45.5% 2.20 +1.6%

Over 3.5 18.0% 23.8% 4.20 -14.6%

BTTS 49.2% 54.1% 1.85 -9.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 26 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 77%

BTTS 39%

Score Hit 69%

ROI 18.3%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 28%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob49.2%

H 46% / xG 1.3-0.9 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 13.1%

#2 0–0 11.1%

#3 1–0 14.2%

#4 2–0 9.1%

#5 2–1 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Carabobo1.3

D. Tachira0.9

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.2% · O3.5 PROB 18.0%

Form & verdict PPG

CARABOBO · PPG 2.11

D. TACHIRA · PPG 1.75

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.11) > Away GOOD (1.75)

Win probability 1X2

Carabobo (H) 46.0%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV +1.2%

Draw 28.9%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -8.0%

D. Tachira (A) 25.1%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -11.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Carabobo face D. Tachira in Venezuela - Primera División on Sunday, May 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Carabobo a 46% chance, the draw 29% and D. Tachira 25%, so Carabobo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Carabobo and 0.9 for D. Tachira (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Carabobo are averaging 2.11 points per game versus 1.75 for D. Tachira. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +1.6%. This match finished 1-1.

Carabobo vs D. Tachira Prediction— Venezuela - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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