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Puerto Cabello vs Portuguesa Prediction— Venezuela - Primera División

Apertura - Quadrangular - 3 ·Wednesday, May 13, 2026, 23:30

Puerto Cabello

PPG 1.57 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

Portuguesa

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.4%0-112.1%0-26.4%0-32.3%0-4+0.7%1 1-012.7%1-113.4%1-27.1%1-32.5%1-4+0.8%2 2-07.1%2-17.5%2-24.0%2-31.4%2-4+0.5%3 3-02.6%3-12.8%3-21.5%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.0%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.6% 54.6% 1.83 -33.0%

Draw 29.5% 31.3% 3.20 -3.4%

Away win 33.8% 23.8% 4.20 +42.0%

Over 2.5 45.4% 46.5% 2.15 -2.4%

Over 3.5 17.5% 26.0% 3.85 -19.6%

BTTS 49.7% 52.6% 1.90 -5.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 26 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 77%

BTTS 39%

Score Hit 69%

ROI 18.3%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 33%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob49.7%

D 30% / xG 1.1-1.1 / U2.5 45% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.4%

#2 0–0 11.4%

#3 1–0 12.7%

#4 0–1 12.1%

#5 2–1✓ 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Puerto Cabello1.1

Portuguesa1.1

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.4% · O3.5 PROB 17.5%

Form & verdict PPG

PUERTO CABELLO · PPG 1.57

PORTUGUESA · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.57) > Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Puerto Cabello (H) 36.6%

ODDS 1.83 · IMPLIED 54.6% EV -33.0%

Draw 29.5%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -3.4%

Portuguesa (A) 33.8%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV +42.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Puerto Cabello face Portuguesa in Venezuela - Primera División on Wednesday, May 13, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Puerto Cabello a 37% chance, the draw 30% and Portuguesa 34%, so Puerto Cabello are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Puerto Cabello and 1.1 for Portuguesa (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Puerto Cabello are averaging 1.57 points per game versus 1.00 for Portuguesa. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +42.0%. This match finished 2-1.

Puerto Cabello vs Portuguesa Prediction— Venezuela - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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