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D. La Guaira vs UCV Prediction— Venezuela - Primera División

Apertura - Quadrangular - 4 ·Friday, May 15, 2026, 23:30

D. La Guaira

PPG 1.86 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

UCV

PPG 1.63 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.9%0-19.8%0-24.0%0-31.1%0-4+0.3%1 1-015.6%1-112.8%1-25.2%1-31.4%1-4+0.3%2 2-010.2%2-18.3%2-23.4%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-04.5%3-13.6%3-21.5%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-11.6%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.0% 54.6% 1.83 -14.0%

Draw 29.3% 30.3% 3.30 -2.0%

Away win 23.7% 25.0% 4.00 -3.1%

Over 2.5 45.0% 51.3% 1.95 -12.3%

Over 3.5 16.6% 29.0% 3.45 -25.6%

BTTS 48.1% 55.6% 1.80 -13.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 26 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 77%

BTTS 39%

Score Hit 69%

ROI 18.3%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 31%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob48.1%

H 47% / xG 1.3-0.8 / U2.5 45% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.8%

#2 0–0✓ 11.9%

#3 1–0 15.6%

#4 2–0 10.2%

#5 2–1 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

D. La Guaira1.3

UCV0.8

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.0% · O3.5 PROB 16.6%

Form & verdict PPG

D. LA GUAIRA · PPG 1.86

UCV · PPG 1.63

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.86), Away GOOD (1.63)

Win probability 1X2

D. La Guaira (H) 47.0%

ODDS 1.83 · IMPLIED 54.6% EV -14.0%

Draw 29.3%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -2.0%

UCV (A) 23.7%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -3.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

D. La Guaira face UCV in Venezuela - Primera División on Friday, May 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives D. La Guaira a 47% chance, the draw 29% and UCV 24%, so D. La Guaira are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for D. La Guaira and 0.8 for UCV (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, D. La Guaira are averaging 1.86 points per game versus 1.63 for UCV. This match finished 0-0.

D. La Guaira vs UCV Prediction— Venezuela - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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