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Puerto Cabello vs UCV Prediction— Venezuela - Primera División

Apertura - Quadrangular - 5 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 22:00

Puerto Cabello

PPG 1.75 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

UCV

PPG 1.56 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 54.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.8%0-18.8%0-25.7%0-32.4%0-4+1.0%1 1-09.5%1-112.3%1-27.9%1-33.4%1-4+1.5%2 2-06.6%2-18.6%2-25.5%2-32.4%2-4+1.0%3 3-03.1%3-14.0%3-22.6%3-31.1%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-11.9%4+-21.2%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.6% 52.4% 1.91 -26.3%

Draw 26.8% 30.3% 3.30 -6.9%

Away win 34.6% 27.8% 3.60 +24.6%

Over 2.5 52.6% 48.8% 2.05 +7.8%

Over 3.5 28.4% 27.0% 3.70 +3.0%

BTTS 54.6% 54.6% 1.83 -0.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 26 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 77%

BTTS 39%

Score Hit 69%

ROI 18.3%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 27%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob54.6%

H 39% / xG 1.4-1.3 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.3%

#2 0–0 6.8%

#3 2–1✓ 8.6%

#4 1–2 7.9%

#5 1–0 9.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Puerto Cabello1.4

UCV1.3

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.6% · O3.5 PROB 28.4%

Form & verdict PPG

PUERTO CABELLO · PPG 1.75

UCV · PPG 1.56

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.75), Away GOOD (1.56)

Win probability 1X2

Puerto Cabello (H) 38.6%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV -26.3%

Draw 26.8%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -6.9%

UCV (A) 34.6%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV +24.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Puerto Cabello face UCV in Venezuela - Primera División on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Puerto Cabello a 39% chance, the draw 27% and UCV 35%, so Puerto Cabello are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Puerto Cabello and 1.3 for UCV (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Puerto Cabello are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 1.56 for UCV. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +24.6%. This match finished 2-1.

Puerto Cabello vs UCV Prediction— Venezuela - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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