Today / Venezuela - Primera División / Metropolitanos vs D. Tachira

Metropolitanos vs D. Tachira Prediction— Venezuela - Primera División

Apertura - Quadrangular - 4 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 22:00

Metropolitanos

PPG 2.25 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

D. Tachira

PPG 1.57 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-015.4%0-111.5%0-24.3%0-31.1%0-4+0.2%1 1-017.3%1-112.9%1-24.8%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-09.8%2-17.3%2-22.7%2-30.7%2-4+0.1%3 3-03.7%3-12.7%3-21.0%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-11.0%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.5% 36.4% 2.75 +19.6%

Draw 32.6% 33.3% 3.00 -2.2%

Away win 23.8% 40.8% 2.45 -25.0%

Over 2.5 35.0% 45.5% 2.20 -23.0%

Over 3.5 12.0% 25.0% 4.00 -31.2%

BTTS 48.6% 54.6% 1.83 -11.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 26 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 77%

BTTS 39%

Score Hit 69%

ROI 18.3%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 37%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob48.6%

H 44% / xG 1.1-0.7 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 15.4%

#2 1–0 17.3%

#3 1–1 12.9%

#4 2–0 9.8%

#5 0–1✓ 11.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Metropolitanos1.1

D. Tachira0.7

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.0% · O3.5 PROB 12.0%

Form & verdict PPG

METROPOLITANOS · PPG 2.25

D. TACHIRA · PPG 1.57

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.25) > Away GOOD (1.57)

Win probability 1X2

Metropolitanos (H) 43.5%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV +19.6%

Draw 32.6%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -2.2%

D. Tachira (A) 23.8%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV -25.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Metropolitanos face D. Tachira in Venezuela - Primera División on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Metropolitanos a 44% chance, the draw 33% and D. Tachira 24%, so Metropolitanos are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Metropolitanos and 0.7 for D. Tachira (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Metropolitanos are averaging 2.25 points per game versus 1.57 for D. Tachira. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +19.6%. This match finished 0-1.

Metropolitanos vs D. Tachira Prediction— Venezuela - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

More Venezuela - Primera División Predictions