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Remo vs Cruzeiro Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Matchday 13 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 21:30

Remo

PPG 1.20 · HOME

LAST 5

LDDLL

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Cruzeiro

PPG 0.20 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWWL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 58% chance

Combined xG of 3.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 73.4% vs bookmaker-implied 51.3% — a clear edge.

+43.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.2%0-12.9%0-21.9%0-30.8%0-4+0.4%1 1-05.5%1-17.2%1-24.7%1-32.0%1-4+0.9%2 2-07.0%2-19.1%2-25.9%2-32.6%2-4+1.1%3 3-05.8%3-17.6%3-24.9%3-32.1%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-06.7%4+-18.7%4+-25.7%4+-32.5%4+-4+1.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 63.8% 28.2% 3.55 +126.5%

Draw 18.0% 29.4% 3.40 -38.8%

Away win 18.3% 49.0% 2.04 -62.7%

Over 2.5 73.4% 51.3% 1.95 +43.1%

Over 3.5 53.0% 29.4% 3.40 +80.2%

BTTS 66.9% 57.1% 1.75 +17.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 132 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 49%

ROI 2.0%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 75%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)2.5 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob66.9%

H 64% / xG 2.5-1.3 / O2.5 73% / BTTS 67%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.1%

#2 3–1 7.6%

#3 1–1 7.2%

#4 2–0 7.0%

#5 2–2 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Remo2.5

Cruzeiro1.3

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 73.4% · O3.5 PROB 53.0%

Form & verdict PPG

REMO · PPG 1.20

CRUZEIRO · PPG 0.20

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

Chance this pick lands

58%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: AVERAGE form (1.20) vs P(Home)=63.8%

Win probability 1X2

Remo (H) 63.8%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV +126.5%

Draw 18.0%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -38.8%

Cruzeiro (A) 18.3%

ODDS 2.04 · IMPLIED 49.0% EV -62.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Remo face Cruzeiro in Brazil - Serie A on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Remo a 64% chance, the draw 18% and Cruzeiro 18%, so Remo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for Remo and 1.3 for Cruzeiro (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 73% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 67% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Remo are averaging 1.20 points per game versus 0.20 for Cruzeiro. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +126.5%. This match finished 0-1.

Remo vs Cruzeiro Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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