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Botafogo vs Internacional Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Regular Season - 13 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 21:30

Botafogo

PPG 1.75 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Internacional

PPG 1.60 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 63.9% vs bookmaker-implied 41.0% — a clear edge.

+55.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.1%0-14.1%0-22.1%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-08.9%1-19.0%1-24.6%1-31.6%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.7%2-19.9%2-25.0%2-31.7%2-4+0.5%3 3-07.1%3-17.2%3-23.7%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-06.4%4+-16.5%4+-23.3%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 63.9% 41.0% 2.44 +55.9%

Draw 19.6% 33.3% 3.00 -41.2%

Away win 16.5% 32.8% 3.05 -49.7%

Over 2.5 62.0% 47.6% 2.10 +30.2%

Over 3.5 39.7% 27.0% 3.70 +46.9%

BTTS 56.6% 56.5% 1.77 +0.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 68 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -6.3%

Bet Hit 51%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob56.6%

H 64% / xG 2.2-1.0 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 57%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.9%

#2 2–0 9.7%

#3 1–1 9.0%

#4 1–0 8.9%

#5 3–1 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Botafogo2.2

Internacional1.0

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.0% · O3.5 PROB 39.7%

Form & verdict PPG

BOTAFOGO · PPG 1.75

INTERNACIONAL · PPG 1.60

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.75), Away GOOD (1.60)

Win probability 1X2

Botafogo (H) 63.9%

ODDS 2.44 · IMPLIED 41.0% EV +55.9%

Draw 19.6%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -41.2%

Internacional (A) 16.5%

ODDS 3.05 · IMPLIED 32.8% EV -49.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Botafogo face Internacional in Brazil - Serie A on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Botafogo a 64% chance, the draw 20% and Internacional 17%, so Botafogo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Botafogo and 1.0 for Internacional (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 57% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Botafogo are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 1.60 for Internacional. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +55.9%. This match finished 2-2.

Botafogo vs Internacional Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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