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Bahia vs Santos Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Regular Season - 13 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 21:30

Bahia

PPG 1.60 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Santos

PPG 0.40 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 76.5% vs bookmaker-implied 54.3% — a clear edge.

+40.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.1%0-12.5%0-21.0%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-08.3%1-16.7%1-22.7%1-30.7%1-4+0.2%2 2-011.0%2-18.9%2-23.6%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-09.8%3-17.9%3-23.2%3-30.9%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-012.3%4+-19.9%4+-24.0%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 76.5% 54.3% 1.84 +40.8%

Draw 14.5% 28.2% 3.55 -48.5%

Away win 9.0% 24.4% 4.10 -63.1%

Over 2.5 67.2% 51.8% 1.93 +29.7%

Over 3.5 45.5% 29.9% 3.35 +52.4%

BTTS 51.5% 56.5% 1.77 -8.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 68 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -6.3%

Bet Hit 51%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 64%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)2.7 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob51.5%

H 76% / xG 2.7-0.8 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 11.0%

#2 3–0 9.8%

#3 2–1 8.9%

#4 1–0 8.3%

#5 3–1 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bahia2.7

Santos0.8

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.2% · O3.5 PROB 45.5%

Form & verdict PPG

BAHIA · PPG 1.60

SANTOS · PPG 0.40

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

98%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in GOOD form (1.60), Away POOR (0.40) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Bahia (H) 76.5%

ODDS 1.84 · IMPLIED 54.3% EV +40.8%

Draw 14.5%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -48.5%

Santos (A) 9.0%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -63.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bahia face Santos in Brazil - Serie A on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bahia a 77% chance, the draw 14% and Santos 9%, so Bahia are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.7 for Bahia and 0.8 for Santos (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bahia are averaging 1.60 points per game versus 0.40 for Santos. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +52.4%. This match finished 2-2.

Bahia vs Santos Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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