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Portuguesa vs UCV Prediction— Venezuela - Primera División

Apertura - 13 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 20:00

Portuguesa

PPG 1.83 · HOME

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

UCV

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.6%0-14.5%0-22.8%0-31.2%0-4+0.5%1 1-07.4%1-19.3%1-25.9%1-32.5%1-4+1.0%2 2-07.7%2-19.7%2-26.1%2-32.5%2-4+1.0%3 3-05.3%3-16.7%3-24.2%3-31.8%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-04.4%4+-15.6%4+-23.5%4+-31.5%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.2% — — —

Draw 21.1% — — —

Away win 22.7% — — —

Over 2.5 64.6% — — —

Over 3.5 42.6% — — —

BTTS 62.5% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 26 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 77%

BTTS 39%

Score Hit 69%

ROI 18.3%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 57%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob62.5%

H 56% / xG 2.1-1.3 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.7%

#2 1–1 9.3%

#3 2–0 7.7%

#4 1–0 7.4%

#5 3–1 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Portuguesa2.1

UCV1.3

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.6% · O3.5 PROB 42.6%

Form & verdict PPG

PORTUGUESA · PPG 1.83

UCV · PPG 2.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.83), Away EXCELLENT (2.00)

Win probability 1X2

Portuguesa (H) 56.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 21.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

UCV (A) 22.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Portuguesa face UCV in Venezuela - Primera División on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Portuguesa a 56% chance, the draw 21% and UCV 23%, so Portuguesa are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Portuguesa and 1.3 for UCV (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Portuguesa are averaging 1.83 points per game versus 2.00 for UCV. This match finished 3-0.

Portuguesa vs UCV Prediction— Venezuela - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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