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Monagas vs Puerto Cabello Prediction— Venezuela - Primera División

Apertura - 13 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 20:00

Monagas

PPG 1.67 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

Puerto Cabello

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.8%0-110.4%0-26.2%0-32.4%0-4+0.9%1 1-010.9%1-113.0%1-27.7%1-33.0%1-4+1.2%2 2-06.8%2-18.1%2-24.8%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-02.8%3-13.4%3-22.0%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-11.4%4+-20.8%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.7% — — —

Draw 27.4% — — —

Away win 34.8% — — —

Over 2.5 43.9% — — —

Over 3.5 22.8% — — —

BTTS 49.5% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 26 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 77%

BTTS 39%

Score Hit 69%

ROI 18.3%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 23%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob49.5%

H 38% / xG 1.2-1.2 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 13.0%

#2 1–0 10.9%

#3 0–1 10.4%

#4 0–0 8.8%

#5 2–1 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Monagas1.2

Puerto Cabello1.2

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 43.9% · O3.5 PROB 22.8%

Form & verdict PPG

MONAGAS · PPG 1.67

PUERTO CABELLO · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.67) > Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Monagas (H) 37.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 27.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Puerto Cabello (A) 34.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Monagas face Puerto Cabello in Venezuela - Primera División on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Monagas a 38% chance, the draw 27% and Puerto Cabello 35%, so Monagas are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Monagas and 1.2 for Puerto Cabello (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Monagas are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 1.00 for Puerto Cabello. This match finished 1-1.

Monagas vs Puerto Cabello Prediction— Venezuela - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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