Today / Venezuela - Primera División / D. Tachira vs Carabobo

D. Tachira vs Carabobo Prediction— Venezuela - Primera División

Apertura - 13 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 20:00

D. Tachira

PPG 1.67 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

Carabobo

PPG 0.80 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.8%0-110.4%0-25.0%0-31.6%0-4+0.5%1 1-013.6%1-113.1%1-26.3%1-32.0%1-4+0.6%2 2-08.6%2-18.3%2-24.0%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-03.6%3-13.5%3-21.7%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-11.5%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.4% — — —

Draw 28.5% — — —

Away win 28.2% — — —

Over 2.5 38.5% — — —

Over 3.5 18.6% — — —

BTTS 44.4% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 26 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 77%

BTTS 39%

Score Hit 69%

ROI 18.3%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 38%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob44.4%

H 43% / xG 1.3-1.0 / U2.5 38% / NoBTTS 44%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 13.6%

#2 1–1 13.1%

#3 0–0 10.8%

#4 0–1 10.4%

#5 2–0 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

D. Tachira1.3

Carabobo1.0

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 38.5% · O3.5 PROB 18.6%

Form & verdict PPG

D. TACHIRA · PPG 1.67

CARABOBO · PPG 0.80

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.67) vs P(Home)=43.4%

Win probability 1X2

D. Tachira (H) 43.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 28.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Carabobo (A) 28.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

D. Tachira face Carabobo in Venezuela - Primera División on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives D. Tachira a 43% chance, the draw 28% and Carabobo 28%, so D. Tachira are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for D. Tachira and 1.0 for Carabobo (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 39% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, D. Tachira are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 0.80 for Carabobo. This match finished 2-1.

D. Tachira vs Carabobo Prediction— Venezuela - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

More Venezuela - Primera División Predictions