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Caracas vs Rayo Zuliano Prediction— Venezuela - Primera División

Apertura - 13 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 20:00

Caracas

PPG 1.17 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Rayo Zuliano

PPG 1.17 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.17), Away AVERAGE (1.17)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.3%0-15.3%0-22.2%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-012.2%1-110.2%1-24.3%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.7%2-19.8%2-24.1%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-07.5%3-16.3%3-22.6%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-05.6%4+-14.7%4+-22.0%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 62.8% — — —

Draw 21.5% — — —

Away win 15.8% — — —

Over 2.5 52.1% — — —

Over 3.5 29.9% — — —

BTTS 48.5% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 26 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 77%

BTTS 39%

Score Hit 69%

ROI 18.3%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 41%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob48.5%

H 63% / xG 1.9-0.8 / O2.5 52% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 12.2%

#2 2–0 11.7%

#3 1–1 10.2%

#4 2–1✓ 9.8%

#5 3–0 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Caracas1.9

Rayo Zuliano0.8

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.1% · O3.5 PROB 29.9%

Form & verdict PPG

CARACAS · PPG 1.17

RAYO ZULIANO · PPG 1.17

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.17), Away AVERAGE (1.17)

Win probability 1X2

Caracas (H) 62.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 21.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Rayo Zuliano (A) 15.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Caracas face Rayo Zuliano in Venezuela - Primera División on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Caracas a 63% chance, the draw 22% and Rayo Zuliano 16%, so Caracas are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Caracas and 0.8 for Rayo Zuliano (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Caracas are averaging 1.17 points per game versus 1.17 for Rayo Zuliano. This match finished 2-1.

Caracas vs Rayo Zuliano Prediction— Venezuela - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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