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A. Rafaela vs Gimnasia Jujuy Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Regular Season - 11 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 21:00

A. Rafaela

PPG 2.00 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Gimnasia Jujuy

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.00) > Away GOOD (1.50)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.2%0-12.2%0-20.8%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-08.7%1-16.1%1-22.1%1-30.5%1-4+0.1%2 2-012.0%2-18.4%2-23.0%2-30.7%2-4+0.1%3 3-011.0%3-17.7%3-22.7%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-014.7%4+-110.4%4+-23.6%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 80.1% — — —

Draw 12.9% — — —

Away win 6.9% — — —

Over 2.5 67.1% — — —

Over 3.5 45.4% — — —

BTTS 47.3% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 177 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 67%

ROI -1.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 0 68%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)2.8 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob47.3%

H 80% / xG 2.8-0.7 / O2.5 67% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 12.0%

#2 3–0 11.0%

#3 1–0 8.7%

#4 2–1 8.4%

#5 3–1 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

A. Rafaela2.8

Gimnasia Jujuy0.7

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.1% · O3.5 PROB 45.4%

Form & verdict PPG

A. RAFAELA · PPG 2.00

GIMNASIA JUJUY · PPG 1.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.00) > Away GOOD (1.50)

Win probability 1X2

A. Rafaela (H) 80.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 12.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Gimnasia Jujuy (A) 6.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

A. Rafaela face Gimnasia Jujuy in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives A. Rafaela a 80% chance, the draw 13% and Gimnasia Jujuy 7%, so A. Rafaela are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.8 for A. Rafaela and 0.7 for Gimnasia Jujuy (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, A. Rafaela are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.50 for Gimnasia Jujuy. This match finished 0-0.

A. Rafaela vs Gimnasia Jujuy Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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