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Minnesota Utd vs Los Angeles FC Prediction— USA - Major League Soccer

Regular Season - 10 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 20:45

Minnesota Utd

PPG 2.33 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

Los Angeles FC

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.7%0-118.1%0-211.1%0-34.6%0-4+1.8%1 1-010.1%1-112.4%1-27.7%1-33.1%1-4+1.3%2 2-03.5%2-14.3%2-22.6%2-31.1%2-4+0.4%3 3-00.8%3-11.0%3-20.6%3-30.2%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.2%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 20.7% 43.1% 2.32 -52.0%

Draw 30.0% 27.8% 3.60 +8.0%

Away win 49.3% 36.0% 2.78 +37.0%

Over 2.5 30.1% 60.6% 1.65 -50.3%

Over 3.5 12.9% 37.7% 2.65 -65.8%

BTTS 35.2% 65.4% 1.53 -46.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 76 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -3.8%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 56%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob35.2%

A 49% / xG 0.7-1.2 / U2.5 30% / NoBTTS 35%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1✓ 18.1%

#2 0–0 14.7%

#3 1–1 12.4%

#4 0–2 11.1%

#5 1–0 10.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Minnesota Utd0.7

Los Angeles FC1.2

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 30.1% · O3.5 PROB 12.9%

Form & verdict PPG

MINNESOTA UTD · PPG 2.33

LOS ANGELES FC · PPG 1.33

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.33) vs P(Home)=20.7%

Win probability 1X2

Minnesota Utd (H) 20.7%

ODDS 2.32 · IMPLIED 43.1% EV -52.0%

Draw 30.0%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV +8.0%

Los Angeles FC (A) 49.3%

ODDS 2.78 · IMPLIED 36.0% EV +37.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Minnesota Utd face Los Angeles FC in USA - Major League Soccer on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Minnesota Utd a 21% chance, the draw 30% and Los Angeles FC 49%, so Los Angeles FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for Minnesota Utd and 1.2 for Los Angeles FC (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 30% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 35% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Minnesota Utd are averaging 2.33 points per game versus 1.33 for Los Angeles FC. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +37.0%. This match finished 0-1.

Minnesota Utd vs Los Angeles FC Prediction— USA - Major League Soccer

Match Preview & Prediction

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