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S. Luqueno vs S. Trinidense Prediction— Paraguay - Division Profesional - Apertura

Apertura - 18 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 20:45

S. Luqueno

PPG 0.88 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

S. Trinidense

PPG 0.88 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.5%0-111.2%0-26.7%0-32.6%0-4+1.0%1 1-011.1%1-113.1%1-27.8%1-33.1%1-4+1.2%2 2-06.5%2-17.7%2-24.6%2-31.8%2-4+0.7%3 3-02.5%3-13.0%3-21.8%3-30.7%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-11.1%4+-20.7%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.7% 35.2% 2.84 +1.4%

Draw 27.9% 31.3% 3.20 -10.7%

Away win 36.4% 42.4% 2.36 -14.1%

Over 2.5 41.9% 46.5% 2.15 -9.9%

Over 3.5 21.3% 25.3% 3.95 -15.9%

BTTS 48.0% 54.6% 1.83 -12.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 34 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 50%

ROI 9.0%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 27%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob48.0%

A 36% / xG 1.2-1.2 / U2.5 42% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.1%

#2 0–1 11.2%

#3 1–0 11.1%

#4 0–0 9.5%

#5 1–2 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

S. Luqueno1.2

S. Trinidense1.2

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 41.9% · O3.5 PROB 21.3%

Form & verdict PPG

S. LUQUENO · PPG 0.88

S. TRINIDENSE · PPG 0.88

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.88), Away POOR (0.88)

Win probability 1X2

S. Luqueno (H) 35.7%

ODDS 2.84 · IMPLIED 35.2% EV +1.4%

Draw 27.9%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -10.7%

S. Trinidense (A) 36.4%

ODDS 2.36 · IMPLIED 42.4% EV -14.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

S. Luqueno face S. Trinidense in Paraguay - Division Profesional - Apertura on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives S. Luqueno a 36% chance, the draw 28% and S. Trinidense 36%, so S. Trinidense are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for S. Luqueno and 1.2 for S. Trinidense (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 42% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, S. Luqueno are averaging 0.88 points per game versus 0.88 for S. Trinidense. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +1.4%. This match finished 2-1.

S. Luqueno vs S. Trinidense Prediction— Paraguay - Division Profesional - Apertura

Match Preview & Prediction

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