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Comerciantes U. vs S. Cristal Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Apertura · Matchday 12 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 20:30

Comerciantes U.

PPG 1.83 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLWL

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

S. Cristal

PPG 0.80 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDWLL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 59% chance

Combined xG of 4.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 79.9% vs bookmaker-implied 50.0% — a clear edge.

+59.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.4%0-11.8%0-21.2%0-30.5%0-4+0.2%1 1-04.2%1-15.4%1-23.4%1-31.5%1-4+0.6%2 2-06.2%2-18.0%2-25.1%2-32.2%2-4+0.9%3 3-06.2%3-18.0%3-25.1%3-32.2%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-09.6%4+-112.4%4+-28.0%4+-33.4%4+-4+1.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 71.8% 45.5% 2.20 +58.0%

Draw 14.7% 30.3% 3.30 -51.5%

Away win 13.5% 31.3% 3.20 -56.8%

Over 2.5 79.9% 50.0% 2.00 +59.8%

Over 3.5 61.8% 28.2% 3.55 +119.4%

BTTS 68.8% 57.1% 1.75 +20.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 112 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 51%

ROI 11.4%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 74%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)3.0 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob68.8%

H 72% / xG 3.0-1.3 / O2.5 80% / BTTS 69%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.0%

#2 3–1 8.0%

#3 2–0 6.2%

#4 3–0 6.2%

#5 4–1 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Comerciantes U.3.0

S. Cristal1.3

COMBINED 4.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 79.9% · O3.5 PROB 61.8%

Form & verdict PPG

COMERCIANTES U. · PPG 1.83

S. CRISTAL · PPG 0.80

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

Chance this pick lands

59%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in GOOD form (1.83), Away POOR (0.80) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Comerciantes U. (H) 71.8%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV +58.0%

Draw 14.7%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -51.5%

S. Cristal (A) 13.5%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -56.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Comerciantes U. face S. Cristal in Peru - Primera División on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Comerciantes U. a 72% chance, the draw 15% and S. Cristal 14%, so Comerciantes U. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.0 for Comerciantes U. and 1.3 for S. Cristal (4.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 80% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 69% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Comerciantes U. are averaging 1.83 points per game versus 0.80 for S. Cristal. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +119.4%. This match finished 1-0.

Comerciantes U. vs S. Cristal Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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