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Spain - Segunda División Saturday, April 25, 2026 19:00 
Malaga PPG 2.17 
Castellon PPG 1.22
Spain - Segunda División Saturday, April 25, 2026 19:00 Malaga PPG 2.172-3 MISS
Castellon PPG 1.22Home· +56.8% 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned
95% confidence
Match Result (1X2)
Model lean: Over 2.5
Result: Away
✘
Goals Markets
Over 2.5 63.5% Odds: 1.65 +4.8%
Over 3.5 41.4% Odds: 2.55 +5.6%
BTTS 60.6% Odds: 1.48 -10.3%
O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → YES ✔
Correct Score Picks
1st 2-1 ✘
2nd 1-1 ✘
3rd 2-0 ✘
4th 1-0 ✘
5th 3-1 ✘
Expected Goals (xG)
Malaga 2.10
Castellon 1.18
Model Suggestion
Over 2.5 +4.8% ROI TRACKS: Over 2.5
Tracked ROI market: Over 2.5.
Raw EV leader: Home(+56.8%)
Raw EV leader: Home(+56.8%)
Verdict & Form
🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned
HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME 95%
Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.17) vs P(Home)=58.5%