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Malaga vs Castellon Prediction— Spain - Segunda División

Matchday 37 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 19:00

Malaga

PPG 2.17 · HOME

LAST 5

WWDDW

2 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Castellon

PPG 1.22 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWWDL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 62% chance

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.5% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+4.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.8%0-14.5%0-22.6%0-31.0%0-4+0.4%1 1-07.9%1-19.3%1-25.5%1-32.1%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.3%2-19.8%2-25.8%2-32.3%2-4+0.9%3 3-05.8%3-16.9%3-24.0%3-31.6%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-05.0%4+-15.8%4+-23.4%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 58.5% 37.3% 2.68 +56.8%

Draw 20.7% 30.8% 3.25 -32.7%

Away win 20.7% 39.2% 2.55 -47.2%

Over 2.5 63.5% 60.6% 1.65 +4.8%

Over 3.5 41.4% 39.2% 2.55 +5.6%

BTTS 60.6% 67.6% 1.48 -10.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 79 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 54%

ROI 71.8%

Bet Hit 100%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 55%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-3

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob60.6%

H 58% / xG 2.1-1.2 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.8%

#2 1–1 9.3%

#3 2–0 8.3%

#4 1–0 7.9%

#5 3–1 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Malaga2.1

Castellon1.2

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.5% · O3.5 PROB 41.4%

Form & verdict PPG

MALAGA · PPG 2.17

CASTELLON · PPG 1.22

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

Chance this pick lands

62%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.17) vs P(Home)=58.5%

Win probability 1X2

Malaga (H) 58.5%

ODDS 2.68 · IMPLIED 37.3% EV +56.8%

Draw 20.7%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -32.7%

Castellon (A) 20.7%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV -47.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Malaga face Castellon in Spain - Segunda División on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Malaga a 59% chance, the draw 21% and Castellon 21%, so Malaga are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Malaga and 1.2 for Castellon (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Malaga are averaging 2.17 points per game versus 1.22 for Castellon. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +56.8%. This match finished 2-3.

Malaga vs Castellon Prediction— Spain - Segunda División

Match Preview & Prediction

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