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Sligo Rovers vs Dundalk Prediction— Ireland - Premier Division

Regular Season - 13 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 18:45

Sligo Rovers

PPG 1.17 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · AWAY

Dundalk

PPG 1.17 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 51.5% vs bookmaker-implied 51.0% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.4%0-113.0%0-210.0%0-35.1%0-4+2.8%1 1-07.9%1-112.1%1-29.3%1-34.8%1-4+2.6%2 2-03.7%2-15.7%2-24.4%2-32.2%2-4+1.2%3 3-01.1%3-11.8%3-21.4%3-30.7%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.5%4+-20.4%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 22.8% 27.0% 3.70 -15.6%

Draw 25.7% 29.0% 3.45 -11.3%

Away win 51.5% 51.0% 1.96 +0.9%

Over 2.5 44.9% 52.6% 1.90 -14.7%

Over 3.5 23.7% 30.8% 3.25 -23.0%

BTTS 47.7% 58.8% 1.70 -18.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 65 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 48%

ROI 6.0%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 3 26%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob47.7%

A 52% / xG 0.9-1.5 / O2.5 45% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 13.0%

#2 1–1 12.1%

#3 0–2 10.0%

#4 1–2 9.3%

#5 0–0 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sligo Rovers0.9

Dundalk1.5

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.9% · O3.5 PROB 23.7%

Form & verdict PPG

SLIGO ROVERS · PPG 1.17

DUNDALK · PPG 1.17

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.17), Away AVERAGE (1.17)

Win probability 1X2

Sligo Rovers (H) 22.8%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -15.6%

Draw 25.7%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -11.3%

Dundalk (A) 51.5%

ODDS 1.96 · IMPLIED 51.0% EV +0.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sligo Rovers face Dundalk in Ireland - Premier Division on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sligo Rovers a 23% chance, the draw 26% and Dundalk 52%, so Dundalk are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Sligo Rovers and 1.5 for Dundalk (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sligo Rovers are averaging 1.17 points per game versus 1.17 for Dundalk. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +0.9%. This match finished 2-0.

Sligo Rovers vs Dundalk Prediction— Ireland - Premier Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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