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Hellas Verona vs Lecce Prediction— Italy - Serie A

Matchday 34 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 18:45

Hellas Verona

PPG 0.44 · HOME

LAST 5

DDLDL

0 – 0

FULL TIME

Lecce

PPG 0.69 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWLWW

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-018.7%0-112.9%0-24.4%0-31.0%0-4+0.2%1 1-018.5%1-112.7%1-24.4%1-31.0%1-4+0.2%2 2-09.1%2-16.3%2-22.2%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-03.0%3-12.1%3-20.7%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-10.6%4+-20.2%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.5% 37.3% 2.68 +11.2%

Draw 33.8% 34.7% 2.88 -2.7%

Away win 24.7% 35.0% 2.86 -29.4%

Over 2.5 23.6% 37.0% 2.70 -36.3%

Over 3.5 8.9% 18.2% 5.50 -51.0%

BTTS 31.2% 46.5% 2.15 -32.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 75 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 56%

ROI -36.2%

Bet Hit 36%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 47%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob31.2%

H 42% / xG 1.0-0.7 / U2.5 24% / NoBTTS 31%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0✓ 18.7%

#2 1–0 18.5%

#3 0–1 12.9%

#4 1–1 12.7%

#5 2–0 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hellas Verona1.0

Lecce0.7

COMBINED 1.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 23.6% · O3.5 PROB 8.9%

Form & verdict PPG

HELLAS VERONA · PPG 0.44

LECCE · PPG 0.69

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

Chance this pick lands

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.44), Away POOR (0.69)

Win probability 1X2

Hellas Verona (H) 41.5%

ODDS 2.68 · IMPLIED 37.3% EV +11.2%

Draw 33.8%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV -2.7%

Lecce (A) 24.7%

ODDS 2.86 · IMPLIED 35.0% EV -29.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Hellas Verona face Lecce in Italy - Serie A on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hellas Verona a 42% chance, the draw 34% and Lecce 25%, so Hellas Verona are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Hellas Verona and 0.7 for Lecce (1.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 24% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 31% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hellas Verona are averaging 0.44 points per game versus 0.69 for Lecce. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +11.2%. This match finished 0-0.

Hellas Verona vs Lecce Prediction— Italy - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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