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CF Montreal vs New York City Prediction— USA - Major League Soccer

Regular Season - 10 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 18:30

CF Montreal

PPG 1.50 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

New York City

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 5.1 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 88.5% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8% — a clear edge.

+50.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.6%0-11.7%0-22.4%0-32.3%0-4+3.2%1 1-01.4%1-13.9%1-25.5%1-35.2%1-4+7.3%2 2-01.6%2-14.4%2-26.3%2-35.9%2-4+8.4%3 3-01.2%3-13.4%3-24.8%3-34.5%3-4+6.4%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-13.3%4+-24.7%4+-34.4%4+-4+6.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.9% 37.0% 2.70 -13.9%

Draw 17.8% 28.2% 3.55 -36.8%

Away win 50.3% 41.7% 2.40 +20.7%

Over 2.5 88.5% 58.8% 1.70 +50.4%

Over 3.5 75.2% 35.7% 2.80 +110.6%

BTTS 84.6% 63.7% 1.57 +32.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 76 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -3.8%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 3 66%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)2.8 BTTS prob84.6%

A 50% / xG 2.3-2.8 / O2.5 88% / BTTS 85%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–2 6.3%

#2 2–3 5.9%

#3 1–2 5.5%

#4 1–3 5.2%

#5 3–2 4.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

CF Montreal2.3

New York City2.8

COMBINED 5.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 88.5% · O3.5 PROB 75.2%

Form & verdict PPG

CF MONTREAL · PPG 1.50

NEW YORK CITY · PPG 1.33

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.50), Away AVERAGE (1.33)

Win probability 1X2

CF Montreal (H) 31.9%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -13.9%

Draw 17.8%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -36.8%

New York City (A) 50.3%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV +20.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

CF Montreal face New York City in USA - Major League Soccer on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives CF Montreal a 32% chance, the draw 18% and New York City 50%, so New York City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for CF Montreal and 2.8 for New York City (5.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-2. There is a 89% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 85% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, CF Montreal are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.33 for New York City. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +110.6%. This match finished 1-0.

CF Montreal vs New York City Prediction— USA - Major League Soccer

Match Preview & Prediction

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