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Giana Erminio vs Dolomiti Bellunesi Prediction— Italy - Serie C - Girone A

Girone A · Matchday 3 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 13:00

Giana Erminio

PPG 1.23 · HOME

LAST 5

LL ···

UPCOMING

Dolomiti Bellunesi

PPG 1.45 · AWAY

LAST 5

WD ···

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.5%0-110.2%0-25.0%0-31.6%0-4+0.5%1 1-013.4%1-113.1%1-26.4%1-32.1%1-4+0.6%2 2-08.6%2-18.4%2-24.1%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-03.7%3-13.6%3-21.7%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-11.5%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.5% 50.0% 2.00 -19.0%

Draw 28.7% 33.3% 3.00 -8.3%

Away win 30.7% 29.4% 3.40 +4.4%

Over 2.5 42.9% 42.6% 2.35 +0.8%

Over 3.5 24.5% 23.1% 4.33 +3.6%

BTTS 48.0% 48.8% 2.05 -1.6%

Home O1.5 38.4% 40.0% 2.50 -4.0%

Away O1.5 27.7% 26.7% 3.75 +2.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 31 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 58%

ROI 17.7%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 34%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob48.0%

D 29% / xG 1.3-1.0 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.1%

#2 1–0 13.4%

#3 0–0 10.5%

#4 0–1 10.2%

#5 2–0 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Giana Erminio1.3

Dolomiti Bellunesi1.0

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 42.9% · O3.5 PROB 24.5%

Form & verdict PPG

GIANA ERMINIO · PPG 1.23

DOLOMITI BELLUNESI · PPG 1.45

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

48%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.31, combined xG 2.26 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Giana Erminio (H) 40.5%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -19.0%

Draw 28.7%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -8.3%

Dolomiti Bellunesi (A) 30.7%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV +4.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Giana Erminio face Dolomiti Bellunesi in Italy - Serie C - Girone A on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Giana Erminio a 41% chance, the draw 29% and Dolomiti Bellunesi 31%, so Giana Erminio are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Giana Erminio and 1.0 for Dolomiti Bellunesi (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Giana Erminio are averaging 1.23 points per game versus 1.45 for Dolomiti Bellunesi. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +16.4%.

Giana Erminio vs Dolomiti Bellunesi Prediction— Italy - Serie C - Girone A

Match Preview & Prediction

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