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Juventus U23 vs Pergolettese Prediction— Italy - Serie C - Girone A

Girone A · Matchday 3 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 16:00

Juventus U23

PPG 1.75 · HOME

LAST 5

WD ···

UPCOMING

Pergolettese

PPG 0.92 · AWAY

LAST 5

LL ···

// Model verdict

Home 56% chance

Model probability 51.9% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.7%0-17.8%0-23.2%0-30.9%0-4+0.2%1 1-014.7%1-112.0%1-24.9%1-31.3%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.2%2-19.1%2-23.7%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-05.7%3-14.6%3-21.9%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-03.1%4+-12.5%4+-21.0%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.9% 57.1% 1.75 -9.2%

Draw 26.0% 32.3% 3.10 -11.6%

Away win 22.0% 23.8% 4.20 -4.6%

Over 2.5 46.8% 47.6% 2.10 -1.7%

Over 3.5 26.4% 26.7% 3.75 -0.6%

BTTS 48.0% 51.3% 1.95 -6.4%

Home O1.5 40.3% 54.6% 1.83 -26.3%

Away O1.5 23.5% 22.2% 4.50 +3.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 31 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 58%

ROI 17.7%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 31%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob48.0%

H 52% / xG 1.5-0.8 / U2.5 47% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 14.7%

#2 1–1 12.0%

#3 2–0 11.2%

#4 0–0 9.7%

#5 2–1 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Juventus U231.5

Pergolettese0.8

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.8% · O3.5 PROB 26.4%

Form & verdict PPG

JUVENTUS U23 · PPG 1.75

PERGOLETTESE · PPG 0.92

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

56%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.71 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Juventus U23 (H) 51.9%

ODDS 1.75 · IMPLIED 57.1% EV -9.2%

Draw 26.0%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -11.6%

Pergolettese (A) 22.0%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -4.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Juventus U23 face Pergolettese in Italy - Serie C - Girone A on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Juventus U23 a 52% chance, the draw 26% and Pergolettese 22%, so Juventus U23 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Juventus U23 and 0.8 for Pergolettese (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Juventus U23 are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 0.92 for Pergolettese. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +31.7%.

Juventus U23 vs Pergolettese Prediction— Italy - Serie C - Girone A

Match Preview & Prediction

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