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Cittadella vs Lumezzane Prediction— Italy - Serie C - Girone A

Girone A · Matchday 3 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 19:00

Cittadella

PPG 1.79 · HOME

LAST 5

WW ···

UPCOMING

Lumezzane

PPG 1.18 · AWAY

LAST 5

LW ···

// Model verdict

Home 55% chance

Model probability 50.2% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.9%0-18.9%0-23.6%0-31.0%0-4+0.2%1 1-015.2%1-112.4%1-25.1%1-31.4%1-4+0.3%2 2-010.7%2-18.7%2-23.6%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-05.0%3-14.1%3-21.7%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.4%4+-12.0%4+-20.8%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.2% 57.1% 1.75 -12.2%

Draw 27.5% 32.3% 3.10 -8.8%

Away win 22.3% 23.8% 4.20 -3.8%

Over 2.5 42.7% 47.6% 2.10 -10.3%

Over 3.5 20.9% 26.7% 3.75 -13.0%

BTTS 48.0% 52.4% 1.91 -8.3%

Home O1.5 39.9% 54.6% 1.83 -27.0%

Away O1.5 23.5% 22.2% 4.50 +3.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 31 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 58%

ROI 17.7%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 35%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob48.0%

H 50% / xG 1.4-0.8 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 15.2%

#2 1–1 12.4%

#3 0–0 10.9%

#4 2–0 10.7%

#5 2–1 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cittadella1.4

Lumezzane0.8

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 42.7% · O3.5 PROB 20.9%

Form & verdict PPG

CITTADELLA · PPG 1.79

LUMEZZANE · PPG 1.18

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

55%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.59 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Cittadella (H) 50.2%

ODDS 1.75 · IMPLIED 57.1% EV -12.2%

Draw 27.5%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -8.8%

Lumezzane (A) 22.3%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -3.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Cittadella face Lumezzane in Italy - Serie C - Girone A on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cittadella a 50% chance, the draw 28% and Lumezzane 22%, so Cittadella are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Cittadella and 0.8 for Lumezzane (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cittadella are averaging 1.79 points per game versus 1.18 for Lumezzane. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +16.1%.

Cittadella vs Lumezzane Prediction— Italy - Serie C - Girone A

Match Preview & Prediction

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