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Lumezzane vs Giana Erminio Prediction— Italy - Serie C - Girone A

Girone A · Matchday 2 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 19:00

Lumezzane

PPG 1.55 · HOME

LAST 5

LW ···

1 – 0

FULL TIME

Giana Erminio

PPG 1.34 · AWAY

LAST 5

LL ···

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.1%0-110.5%0-25.5%0-31.9%0-4+0.6%1 1-012.6%1-113.2%1-26.9%1-32.4%1-4+0.8%2 2-07.9%2-18.2%2-24.3%2-31.5%2-4+0.5%3 3-03.3%3-13.4%3-21.8%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-11.4%4+-20.7%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.7% 41.7% 2.40 -7.1%

Draw 32.1% 33.9% 2.95 -5.3%

Away win 29.2% 34.5% 2.90 -9.2%

Over 2.5 43.1% 43.5% 2.30 -0.9%

Over 3.5 25.6% 22.2% 4.50 +9.1%

BTTS 47.2% 52.4% 1.91 -9.8%

Home O1.5 35.8% 38.5% 2.60 -6.9%

Away O1.5 32.6% 33.3% 3.00 -2.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 31 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 58%

ROI 17.7%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 42%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob47.2%

D 32% / xG 1.3-1.0 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.2%

#2 0–0 10.1%

#3 1–0✓ 12.6%

#4 0–1 10.5%

#5 2–1 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lumezzane1.3

Giana Erminio1.0

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 43.1% · O3.5 PROB 25.6%

Form & verdict PPG

LUMEZZANE · PPG 1.55

GIANA ERMINIO · PPG 1.34

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear value

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.21, combined xG 2.29 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Lumezzane (H) 38.7%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV -7.1%

Draw 32.1%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV -5.3%

Giana Erminio (A) 29.2%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -9.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Lumezzane face Giana Erminio in Italy - Serie C - Girone A on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lumezzane a 39% chance, the draw 32% and Giana Erminio 29%, so Lumezzane are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Lumezzane and 1.0 for Giana Erminio (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lumezzane are averaging 1.55 points per game versus 1.34 for Giana Erminio. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +10.2%. This match finished 1-0.

Lumezzane vs Giana Erminio Prediction— Italy - Serie C - Girone A

Match Preview & Prediction

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