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Ospitaletto vs Arzignano Valchiampo Prediction— Italy - Serie C - Girone A

Girone A · Matchday 3 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 19:00

Ospitaletto

PPG 1.73 · HOME

LAST 5

WD ···

UPCOMING

Arzignano Valchiampo

PPG 1.40 · AWAY

LAST 5

DW ···

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.6%0-110.1%0-24.4%0-31.3%0-4+0.3%1 1-014.9%1-113.0%1-25.6%1-31.6%1-4+0.4%2 2-09.6%2-18.3%2-23.6%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-04.1%3-13.6%3-21.6%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-11.5%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.3% 43.5% 2.30 +1.9%

Draw 31.4% 38.2% 2.62 -17.7%

Away win 24.3% 33.3% 3.00 -16.3%

Over 2.5 42.6% 40.0% 2.50 +6.5%

Over 3.5 20.9% 22.2% 4.50 -3.6%

BTTS 48.0% 50.0% 2.00 -4.0%

Home O1.5 38.4% 36.4% 2.75 +5.6%

Away O1.5 25.1% 29.4% 3.40 -8.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 31 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 58%

ROI 17.7%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 31%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob48.0%

H 44% / xG 1.3-0.9 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.0%

#2 0–0 11.6%

#3 1–0 14.9%

#4 2–0 9.6%

#5 0–1 10.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ospitaletto1.3

Arzignano Valchiampo0.9

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 42.6% · O3.5 PROB 20.9%

Form & verdict PPG

OSPITALETTO · PPG 1.73

ARZIGNANO VALCHIAMPO · PPG 1.40

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

Chance this pick lands

48%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.42, combined xG 2.16 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Ospitaletto (H) 44.3%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV +1.9%

Draw 31.4%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV -17.7%

Arzignano Valchiampo (A) 24.3%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -16.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ospitaletto face Arzignano Valchiampo in Italy - Serie C - Girone A on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ospitaletto a 44% chance, the draw 31% and Arzignano Valchiampo 24%, so Ospitaletto are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Ospitaletto and 0.9 for Arzignano Valchiampo (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ospitaletto are averaging 1.73 points per game versus 1.40 for Arzignano Valchiampo. The best value bet our model finds is BTTS/O25, with an expected value of +15.5%.

Ospitaletto vs Arzignano Valchiampo Prediction— Italy - Serie C - Girone A

Match Preview & Prediction

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