Today / Italy - Serie C - Girone A / Albinoleffe vs Ospitaletto

Albinoleffe vs Ospitaletto Prediction— Italy - Serie C - Girone A

Girone A · Matchday 2 ·Monday, August 31, 2026, 19:00

Albinoleffe

PPG 1.55 · HOME

LAST 5

WD ···

1 – 1

FULL TIME

Ospitaletto

PPG 1.10 · AWAY

LAST 5

WD ···

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.0%0-19.8%0-25.3%0-31.9%0-4+0.7%1 1-011.9%1-112.9%1-27.0%1-32.5%1-4+0.9%2 2-07.8%2-18.5%2-24.6%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-03.4%3-13.7%3-22.0%3-30.7%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-11.6%4+-20.9%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.4% 46.5% 2.15 -15.3%

Draw 30.5% 33.3% 3.00 -8.5%

Away win 30.1% 30.8% 3.25 -2.2%

Over 2.5 44.5% 43.5% 2.30 +2.4%

Over 3.5 26.3% 23.8% 4.20 +6.3%

BTTS 49.9% 52.6% 1.90 -5.2%

Home O1.5 38.4% 41.7% 2.40 -7.8%

Away O1.5 32.9% 30.8% 3.25 +6.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 31 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 58%

ROI 17.7%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 33%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob49.9%

D 30% / xG 1.3-1.1 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 12.9%

#2 0–0 9.0%

#3 1–0 11.9%

#4 2–1 8.5%

#5 0–1 9.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Albinoleffe1.3

Ospitaletto1.1

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.5% · O3.5 PROB 26.3%

Form & verdict PPG

ALBINOLEFFE · PPG 1.55

OSPITALETTO · PPG 1.10

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear value

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.23, combined xG 2.40 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Albinoleffe (H) 39.4%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -15.3%

Draw 30.5%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -8.5%

Ospitaletto (A) 30.1%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -2.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Albinoleffe face Ospitaletto in Italy - Serie C - Girone A on Monday, August 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Albinoleffe a 39% chance, the draw 31% and Ospitaletto 30%, so Albinoleffe are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Albinoleffe and 1.1 for Ospitaletto (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Albinoleffe are averaging 1.55 points per game versus 1.10 for Ospitaletto. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +21.1%. This match finished 1-1.

Albinoleffe vs Ospitaletto Prediction— Italy - Serie C - Girone A

Match Preview & Prediction

More Italy - Serie C - Girone A Predictions