Today / Italy - Serie C - Girone A / Albinoleffe vs Athletic Carpi

Albinoleffe vs Athletic Carpi Prediction— Italy - Serie C - Girone A

Girone A · Matchday 3 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 13:00

Albinoleffe

PPG 1.46 · HOME

LAST 5

WD ···

UPCOMING

Athletic Carpi

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

LAST 5

LD ···

// Model verdict

BTTS 54% chance

Model probability 53.9% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.1%0-17.1%0-23.6%0-31.2%0-4+0.4%1 1-011.6%1-111.7%1-25.9%1-32.0%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.6%2-19.6%2-24.8%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-05.3%3-15.3%3-22.6%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-03.1%4+-13.1%4+-21.6%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.3% 46.5% 2.15 +10.3%

Draw 24.4% 35.7% 2.80 -19.0%

Away win 24.3% 30.8% 3.25 -12.6%

Over 2.5 53.8% 46.5% 2.15 +15.7%

Over 3.5 31.6% 25.0% 4.00 +26.4%

BTTS 53.9% 54.1% 1.85 -0.3%

Home O1.5 48.1% 45.5% 2.20 +5.8%

Away O1.5 30.5% 28.6% 3.50 +6.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 31 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 58%

ROI 17.7%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 35%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob53.9%

H 51% / xG 1.6-1.0 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.7%

#2 1–0 11.6%

#3 2–1 9.6%

#4 2–0 9.6%

#5 0–0 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Albinoleffe1.6

Athletic Carpi1.0

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

ALBINOLEFFE · PPG 1.46

ATHLETIC CARPI · PPG 1.25

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

54%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.64 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Albinoleffe (H) 51.3%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV +10.3%

Draw 24.4%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -19.0%

Athletic Carpi (A) 24.3%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -12.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Albinoleffe face Athletic Carpi in Italy - Serie C - Girone A on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Albinoleffe a 51% chance, the draw 24% and Athletic Carpi 24%, so Albinoleffe are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Albinoleffe and 1.0 for Athletic Carpi (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Albinoleffe are averaging 1.46 points per game versus 1.25 for Athletic Carpi. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +26.4%.

Albinoleffe vs Athletic Carpi Prediction— Italy - Serie C - Girone A

Match Preview & Prediction

More Italy - Serie C - Girone A Predictions