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Renate vs Cittadella Prediction— Italy - Serie C - Girone A

Girone A · Matchday 2 ·Monday, August 31, 2026, 19:00

Renate

PPG 1.62 · HOME

LAST 5

LL ···

0 – 1

FULL TIME

Cittadella

PPG 1.52 · AWAY

LAST 5

WW ···

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.1%0-110.3%0-25.8%0-32.2%0-4+0.8%1 1-011.5%1-113.0%1-27.4%1-32.8%1-4+1.0%2 2-07.3%2-18.3%2-24.7%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-03.1%3-13.5%3-22.0%3-30.7%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-11.5%4+-20.8%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.3% 35.1% 2.85 +3.5%

Draw 27.9% 30.8% 3.25 -5.6%

Away win 35.8% 44.4% 2.25 -19.4%

Over 2.5 44.5% 47.6% 2.10 -6.6%

Over 3.5 26.4% 26.0% 3.85 +1.0%

BTTS 49.9% 55.6% 1.80 -10.2%

Home O1.5 38.4% 35.7% 2.80 +7.5%

Away O1.5 33.2% 42.6% 2.35 -22.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 31 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 58%

ROI 17.7%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 22%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob49.9%

H 36% / xG 1.3-1.1 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.0%

#2 0–0 9.1%

#3 0–1✓ 10.3%

#4 1–0 11.5%

#5 1–2 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Renate1.3

Cittadella1.1

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.5% · O3.5 PROB 26.4%

Form & verdict PPG

RENATE · PPG 1.62

CITTADELLA · PPG 1.52

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear value

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.14, combined xG 2.40 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Renate (H) 36.3%

ODDS 2.85 · IMPLIED 35.1% EV +3.5%

Draw 27.9%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -5.6%

Cittadella (A) 35.8%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -19.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Renate face Cittadella in Italy - Serie C - Girone A on Monday, August 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Renate a 36% chance, the draw 28% and Cittadella 36%, so Renate are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Renate and 1.1 for Cittadella (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Renate are averaging 1.62 points per game versus 1.52 for Cittadella. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +12.9%. This match finished 0-1.

Renate vs Cittadella Prediction— Italy - Serie C - Girone A

Match Preview & Prediction

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