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Arzignano Valchiampo vs PRO Vercelli Prediction— Italy - Serie C - Girone A

Girone A · Matchday 2 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 16:00

Arzignano Valchiampo

PPG 1.38 · HOME

LAST 5

DW ···

1 – 0

FULL TIME

PRO Vercelli

PPG 1.14 · AWAY

LAST 5

DL ···

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.7%0-19.9%0-25.1%0-31.7%0-4+0.5%1 1-012.8%1-113.0%1-26.6%1-32.3%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.3%2-18.5%2-24.3%2-31.5%2-4+0.5%3 3-03.6%3-13.7%3-21.9%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-11.6%4+-20.8%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.6% 50.0% 2.00 -20.8%

Draw 32.9% 33.3% 3.00 -1.3%

Away win 27.5% 26.7% 3.75 +1.9%

Over 2.5 43.2% 45.5% 2.20 -5.0%

Over 3.5 25.6% 23.8% 4.20 +4.5%

BTTS 47.2% 52.6% 1.90 -10.3%

Home O1.5 37.2% 45.5% 2.20 -18.2%

Away O1.5 32.6% 28.6% 3.50 +14.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 31 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 58%

ROI 17.7%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 27%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob47.2%

H 40% / xG 1.3-1.0 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.0%

#2 0–0 9.7%

#3 1–0✓ 12.8%

#4 2–1 8.5%

#5 0–1 9.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Arzignano Valchiampo1.3

PRO Vercelli1.0

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 43.2% · O3.5 PROB 25.6%

Form & verdict PPG

ARZIGNANO VALCHIAMPO · PPG 1.38

PRO VERCELLI · PPG 1.14

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear value

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.29, combined xG 2.33 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Arzignano Valchiampo (H) 39.6%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -20.8%

Draw 32.9%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -1.3%

PRO Vercelli (A) 27.5%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV +1.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Arzignano Valchiampo face PRO Vercelli in Italy - Serie C - Girone A on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Arzignano Valchiampo a 40% chance, the draw 33% and PRO Vercelli 28%, so Arzignano Valchiampo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Arzignano Valchiampo and 1.0 for PRO Vercelli (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Arzignano Valchiampo are averaging 1.38 points per game versus 1.14 for PRO Vercelli. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +14.1%. This match finished 1-0.

Arzignano Valchiampo vs PRO Vercelli Prediction— Italy - Serie C - Girone A

Match Preview & Prediction

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