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Dolomiti Bellunesi vs Alcione Prediction— Italy - Serie C - Girone A

Girone A · Matchday 2 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 16:00

Dolomiti Bellunesi

PPG 1.28 · HOME

LAST 5

WD ···

0 – 0

FULL TIME

Alcione

PPG 1.31 · AWAY

LAST 5

WD ···

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.8%0-111.0%0-26.1%0-32.3%0-4+0.8%1 1-011.8%1-113.2%1-27.4%1-32.8%1-4+1.0%2 2-07.1%2-17.9%2-24.4%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-02.8%3-13.2%3-21.8%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.2%4+-20.7%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.1% 40.8% 2.45 -11.6%

Draw 28.3% 33.3% 3.00 -9.1%

Away win 35.6% 35.7% 2.80 -0.3%

Over 2.5 44.8% 43.5% 2.30 +3.0%

Over 3.5 25.6% 23.1% 4.33 +6.5%

BTTS 49.2% 52.6% 1.90 -6.5%

Home O1.5 32.3% 38.5% 2.60 -16.0%

Away O1.5 33.0% 34.5% 2.90 -4.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 31 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 58%

ROI 17.7%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 30%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob49.2%

D 28% / xG 1.2-1.1 / U2.5 45% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.2%

#2 0–0✓ 9.8%

#3 0–1 11.0%

#4 1–0 11.8%

#5 1–2 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Dolomiti Bellunesi1.2

Alcione1.1

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.8% · O3.5 PROB 25.6%

Form & verdict PPG

DOLOMITI BELLUNESI · PPG 1.28

ALCIONE · PPG 1.31

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear value

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.08, combined xG 2.32 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Dolomiti Bellunesi (H) 36.1%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV -11.6%

Draw 28.3%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -9.1%

Alcione (A) 35.6%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -0.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Dolomiti Bellunesi face Alcione in Italy - Serie C - Girone A on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dolomiti Bellunesi a 36% chance, the draw 28% and Alcione 36%, so Dolomiti Bellunesi are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Dolomiti Bellunesi and 1.1 for Alcione (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dolomiti Bellunesi are averaging 1.28 points per game versus 1.31 for Alcione. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +12.6%. This match finished 0-0.

Dolomiti Bellunesi vs Alcione Prediction— Italy - Serie C - Girone A

Match Preview & Prediction

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