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Renate vs Novara Prediction— Italy - Serie C - Girone A

Girone A · Matchday 3 ·Monday, September 7, 2026, 19:00

Renate

PPG 1.35 · HOME

LAST 5

LL ···

UPCOMING

Novara

PPG 1.09 · AWAY

LAST 5

LD ···

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.5%0-110.0%0-24.7%0-31.5%0-4+0.4%1 1-013.7%1-113.0%1-26.2%1-32.0%1-4+0.6%2 2-08.9%2-18.5%2-24.0%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-03.9%3-13.7%3-21.7%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-11.6%4+-20.8%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.6% 43.5% 2.30 +0.3%

Draw 27.5% 36.4% 2.75 -14.6%

Away win 28.9% 33.3% 3.00 -8.0%

Over 2.5 44.5% 43.5% 2.30 +2.4%

Over 3.5 25.5% 23.1% 4.33 +6.3%

BTTS 49.9% 52.4% 1.91 -4.7%

Home O1.5 38.4% 40.0% 2.50 -4.0%

Away O1.5 26.1% 29.4% 3.40 -6.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 31 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 58%

ROI 17.7%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 26%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob49.9%

H 44% / xG 1.3-0.9 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.0%

#2 1–0 13.7%

#3 0–0 10.5%

#4 0–1 10.0%

#5 2–0 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Renate1.3

Novara0.9

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.5% · O3.5 PROB 25.5%

Form & verdict PPG

RENATE · PPG 1.35

NOVARA · PPG 1.09

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

50%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.35, combined xG 2.25 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Renate (H) 43.6%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV +0.3%

Draw 27.5%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -14.6%

Novara (A) 28.9%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -8.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Renate face Novara in Italy - Serie C - Girone A on Monday, September 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Renate a 44% chance, the draw 28% and Novara 29%, so Renate are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Renate and 0.9 for Novara (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Renate are averaging 1.35 points per game versus 1.09 for Novara. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +6.3%.

Renate vs Novara Prediction— Italy - Serie C - Girone A

Match Preview & Prediction

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