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Trento vs Lecco Prediction— Italy - Serie C - Girone A

Girone A · Matchday 3 ·Monday, September 7, 2026, 19:00

Trento

PPG 1.88 · HOME

LAST 5

WD ···

UPCOMING

Lecco

PPG 1.35 · AWAY

LAST 5

DL ···

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.0%0-19.9%0-24.1%0-31.1%0-4+0.3%1 1-015.5%1-112.8%1-25.3%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.1%2-18.3%2-23.4%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-04.4%3-13.6%3-21.5%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-11.6%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.9% 51.3% 1.95 -10.5%

Draw 31.6% 34.7% 2.88 -9.0%

Away win 22.5% 26.7% 3.75 -9.4%

Over 2.5 41.1% 45.5% 2.20 -9.6%

Over 3.5 20.9% 25.0% 4.00 -9.8%

BTTS 48.0% 52.4% 1.91 -8.3%

Home O1.5 38.4% 45.5% 2.20 -15.5%

Away O1.5 23.5% 26.7% 3.75 -7.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 31 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 58%

ROI 17.7%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 34%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob48.0%

H 46% / xG 1.3-0.8 / U2.5 41% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.8%

#2 1–0 15.5%

#3 0–0 12.0%

#4 2–0 10.1%

#5 2–1 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Trento1.3

Lecco0.8

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 41.1% · O3.5 PROB 20.9%

Form & verdict PPG

TRENTO · PPG 1.88

LECCO · PPG 1.35

⚠ NO VALUE FOUND - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

Chance this pick lands

48%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.47, combined xG 2.12 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Trento (H) 45.9%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -10.5%

Draw 31.6%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV -9.0%

Lecco (A) 22.5%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -9.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Trento face Lecco in Italy - Serie C - Girone A on Monday, September 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Trento a 46% chance, the draw 32% and Lecco 23%, so Trento are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Trento and 0.8 for Lecco (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 41% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Trento are averaging 1.88 points per game versus 1.35 for Lecco. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +3.5%.

Trento vs Lecco Prediction— Italy - Serie C - Girone A

Match Preview & Prediction

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