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Longford Town vs Kerry Prediction— Ireland - First Division

Regular Season - 12 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 18:30

Longford Town

PPG 1.40 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Kerry

PPG 0.40 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 56.4% vs bookmaker-implied 40.0% — a clear edge.

+41.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-015.7%0-18.3%0-22.2%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-020.8%1-111.0%1-22.9%1-30.5%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.8%2-17.3%2-21.9%2-30.3%2-4+0.0%3 3-06.1%3-13.2%3-20.8%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-02.7%4+-11.4%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.4% 40.0% 2.50 +41.0%

Draw 28.8% 30.8% 3.25 -6.4%

Away win 14.8% 36.0% 2.78 -58.9%

Over 2.5 28.3% 50.0% 2.00 -43.4%

Over 3.5 11.7% 28.6% 3.50 -59.1%

BTTS 30.1% 57.8% 1.73 -47.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -20.9%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 60%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob30.1%

H 56% / xG 1.3-0.5 / U2.5 28% / NoBTTS 30%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0✓ 20.8%

#2 0–0 15.7%

#3 2–0 13.8%

#4 1–1 11.0%

#5 0–1 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Longford Town1.3

Kerry0.5

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 28.3% · O3.5 PROB 11.7%

Form & verdict PPG

LONGFORD TOWN · PPG 1.40

KERRY · PPG 0.40

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

95%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: AVERAGE form (1.40) vs P(Home)=56.4%

Win probability 1X2

Longford Town (H) 56.4%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV +41.0%

Draw 28.8%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -6.4%

Kerry (A) 14.8%

ODDS 2.78 · IMPLIED 36.0% EV -58.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Longford Town face Kerry in Ireland - First Division on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Longford Town a 56% chance, the draw 29% and Kerry 15%, so Longford Town are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Longford Town and 0.5 for Kerry (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 28% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 30% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Longford Town are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 0.40 for Kerry. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +41.0%. This match finished 1-0.

Longford Town vs Kerry Prediction— Ireland - First Division

Match Preview & Prediction

More Ireland - First Division Predictions