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Koper vs NK Olimpija Prediction— Slovenia - 1. SNL

Regular Season - 32 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 18:15

Koper

PPG 2.33 · HOME

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

NK Olimpija

PPG 1.57 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 56.3% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.3%0-15.8%0-23.2%0-31.2%0-4+0.4%1 1-09.7%1-110.7%1-25.9%1-32.2%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.9%2-19.8%2-25.4%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-05.5%3-16.0%3-23.3%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-03.8%4+-14.2%4+-22.3%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.7% 52.1% 1.92 +5.0%

Draw 22.8% 29.4% 3.40 -22.5%

Away win 22.5% 27.4% 3.65 -17.9%

Over 2.5 56.3% 57.1% 1.75 -1.5%

Over 3.5 33.9% 34.7% 2.88 -2.4%

BTTS 56.1% 62.5% 1.60 -10.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 74%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 37%

ROI 30.6%

Bet Hit 82%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 47%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob56.1%

H 55% / xG 1.8-1.1 / O2.5 56% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.7%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 1–0 9.7%

#4 2–0 8.9%

#5 3–1 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Koper1.8

NK Olimpija1.1

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 56.3% · O3.5 PROB 33.9%

Form & verdict PPG

KOPER · PPG 2.33

NK OLIMPIJA · PPG 1.57

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.33) > Away GOOD (1.57)

Win probability 1X2

Koper (H) 54.7%

ODDS 1.92 · IMPLIED 52.1% EV +5.0%

Draw 22.8%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -22.5%

NK Olimpija (A) 22.5%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -17.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Koper face NK Olimpija in Slovenia - 1. SNL on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Koper a 55% chance, the draw 23% and NK Olimpija 23%, so Koper are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Koper and 1.1 for NK Olimpija (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 56% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Koper are averaging 2.33 points per game versus 1.57 for NK Olimpija. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +5.0%. This match finished 3-2.

Koper vs NK Olimpija Prediction— Slovenia - 1. SNL

Match Preview & Prediction

More Slovenia - 1. SNL Predictions