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UCV Moquegua vs FC Cajamarca Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Apertura · Matchday 12 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 18:00

UCV Moquegua

PPG 1.80 · HOME

LAST 5

DLDWL

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

FC Cajamarca

PPG 0.17 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLLWL

// Model verdict

Home 58% chance

Model probability 75.5% vs bookmaker-implied 51.0% — a clear edge.

+48.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.9%0-12.5%0-21.1%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-07.8%1-16.8%1-22.9%1-30.8%1-4+0.2%2 2-010.4%2-19.0%2-23.9%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-09.2%3-18.0%3-23.5%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-011.7%4+-110.1%4+-24.4%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 75.5% 51.0% 1.96 +48.0%

Draw 14.8% 29.4% 3.40 -49.7%

Away win 9.7% 26.7% 3.75 -63.6%

Over 2.5 68.4% 47.6% 2.10 +43.6%

Over 3.5 46.9% 26.3% 3.80 +78.2%

BTTS 53.8% 54.1% 1.85 -0.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 112 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 51%

ROI 11.4%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 67%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)2.7 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob53.8%

H 76% / xG 2.7-0.9 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 10.4%

#2 3–0 9.2%

#3 2–1✓ 9.0%

#4 3–1 8.0%

#5 1–0 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

UCV Moquegua2.7

FC Cajamarca0.9

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.4% · O3.5 PROB 46.9%

Form & verdict PPG

UCV MOQUEGUA · PPG 1.80

FC CAJAMARCA · PPG 0.17

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

Chance this pick lands

58%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in GOOD form (1.80), Away POOR (0.17) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

UCV Moquegua (H) 75.5%

ODDS 1.96 · IMPLIED 51.0% EV +48.0%

Draw 14.8%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -49.7%

FC Cajamarca (A) 9.7%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -63.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

UCV Moquegua face FC Cajamarca in Peru - Primera División on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives UCV Moquegua a 76% chance, the draw 15% and FC Cajamarca 10%, so UCV Moquegua are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.7 for UCV Moquegua and 0.9 for FC Cajamarca (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, UCV Moquegua are averaging 1.80 points per game versus 0.17 for FC Cajamarca. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +78.2%. This match finished 2-1.

UCV Moquegua vs FC Cajamarca Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

More Peru - Primera División Predictions