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Saint-Etienne vs Troyes Prediction— France - Ligue 2

Matchday 32 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 18:00

Saint-Etienne

PPG 2.13 · HOME

LAST 5

LWDDL

0 – 3

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Troyes

PPG 1.40 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWWWL

// Model verdict

Home 53% chance

Model probability 54.1% vs bookmaker-implied 52.4% — a real, if thin, edge.

+3.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.1%0-16.4%0-23.3%0-31.1%0-4+0.4%1 1-010.8%1-111.2%1-25.8%1-32.0%1-4+0.7%2 2-09.4%2-19.8%2-25.1%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-05.5%3-15.7%3-23.0%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-03.6%4+-13.7%4+-21.9%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.1% 52.4% 1.91 +3.3%

Draw 23.6% 27.4% 3.65 -13.9%

Away win 22.4% 27.4% 3.65 -18.2%

Over 2.5 52.8% 59.9% 1.67 -11.8%

Over 3.5 30.6% 37.0% 2.70 -17.4%

BTTS 53.4% 64.5% 1.55 -17.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 50 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 40%

ROI 13.0%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 38%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-3

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob53.4%

H 54% / xG 1.8-1.0 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.2%

#2 1–0 10.8%

#3 2–1 9.8%

#4 2–0 9.4%

#5 0–1 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Saint-Etienne1.8

Troyes1.0

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.8% · O3.5 PROB 30.6%

Form & verdict PPG

SAINT-ETIENNE · PPG 2.13

TROYES · PPG 1.40

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

53%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.13) > Away AVERAGE (1.40)

Win probability 1X2

Saint-Etienne (H) 54.1%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV +3.3%

Draw 23.6%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -13.9%

Troyes (A) 22.4%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -18.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Saint-Etienne face Troyes in France - Ligue 2 on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Saint-Etienne a 54% chance, the draw 24% and Troyes 22%, so Saint-Etienne are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Saint-Etienne and 1.0 for Troyes (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Saint-Etienne are averaging 2.13 points per game versus 1.40 for Troyes. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +3.3%. This match finished 0-3.

Saint-Etienne vs Troyes Prediction— France - Ligue 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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