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Cesena vs Sampdoria Prediction— Italy - Serie B

Regular Season - 36 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 17:30

Cesena

PPG 1.35 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Sampdoria

PPG 0.65 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 61.3% vs bookmaker-implied 41.7% — a clear edge.

+47.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.8%0-15.7%0-22.4%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-012.6%1-110.5%1-24.4%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.7%2-19.8%2-24.1%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-07.2%3-16.0%3-22.5%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-05.1%4+-14.2%4+-21.8%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 61.3% 41.7% 2.40 +47.1%

Draw 22.2% 31.3% 3.20 -29.0%

Away win 16.5% 34.0% 2.94 -51.5%

Over 2.5 50.3% 47.6% 2.10 +5.6%

Over 3.5 28.3% 26.3% 3.80 +7.5%

BTTS 47.8% 56.5% 1.77 -15.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 40 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 60%

ROI 4.0%

Bet Hit 61%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 38%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob47.8%

H 61% / xG 1.8-0.8 / O2.5 50% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 12.6%

#2 2–0 11.7%

#3 1–1 10.5%

#4 2–1 9.8%

#5 3–0 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cesena1.8

Sampdoria0.8

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.3% · O3.5 PROB 28.3%

Form & verdict PPG

CESENA · PPG 1.35

SAMPDORIA · PPG 0.65

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.35) > Away POOR (0.65)

Win probability 1X2

Cesena (H) 61.3%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV +47.1%

Draw 22.2%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -29.0%

Sampdoria (A) 16.5%

ODDS 2.94 · IMPLIED 34.0% EV -51.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Cesena face Sampdoria in Italy - Serie B on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cesena a 61% chance, the draw 22% and Sampdoria 17%, so Cesena are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Cesena and 0.8 for Sampdoria (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cesena are averaging 1.35 points per game versus 0.65 for Sampdoria. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +47.1%. This match finished 0-0.

Cesena vs Sampdoria Prediction— Italy - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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