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Toronto vs Atlanta Utd Prediction— USA - Major League Soccer

Matchday 10 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 17:00

Toronto

PPG 1.67 · HOME

LAST 5

DWDWD

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Atlanta Utd

PPG 0.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWWWL

// Model verdict

Home 62% chance

Model probability 78.8% vs bookmaker-implied 54.3% — a clear edge.

+45.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.9%0-12.2%0-20.9%0-30.2%0-4+0.1%1 1-08.0%1-16.2%1-22.4%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-011.1%2-18.6%2-23.3%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-010.2%3-17.9%3-23.1%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-013.8%4+-110.7%4+-24.2%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 78.8% 54.3% 1.84 +45.0%

Draw 13.4% 27.0% 3.70 -50.4%

Away win 7.8% 26.0% 3.85 -70.0%

Over 2.5 68.6% 55.6% 1.80 +23.5%

Over 3.5 47.2% 33.3% 3.00 +41.6%

BTTS 50.5% 58.8% 1.70 -14.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 76 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -8.5%

Bet Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 66%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)2.8 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob50.5%

H 79% / xG 2.8-0.8 / O2.5 69% / BTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 11.1%

#2 3–0 10.2%

#3 2–1 8.6%

#4 1–0 8.0%

#5 3–1 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Toronto2.8

Atlanta Utd0.8

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.6% · O3.5 PROB 47.2%

Form & verdict PPG

TORONTO · PPG 1.67

ATLANTA UTD · PPG 0.00

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

Chance this pick lands

62%

NEUTRAL

No PPG data

Win probability 1X2

Toronto (H) 78.8%

ODDS 1.84 · IMPLIED 54.3% EV +45.0%

Draw 13.4%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -50.4%

Atlanta Utd (A) 7.8%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -70.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Toronto face Atlanta Utd in USA - Major League Soccer on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Toronto a 79% chance, the draw 13% and Atlanta Utd 8%, so Toronto are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.8 for Toronto and 0.8 for Atlanta Utd (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 69% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Toronto are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 0.00 for Atlanta Utd. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +45.0%. This match finished 1-2.

Toronto vs Atlanta Utd Prediction— USA - Major League Soccer

Match Preview & Prediction

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