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Meknes vs Difaa El Jadida Prediction— Morocco - Botola Pro

Matchday 16 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 17:00

Meknes

PPG 2.38 · HOME

LAST 5

LDDWL

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Difaa El Jadida

PPG 1.29 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWDDL

// Model verdict

Home 47% chance

Model probability 51.1% vs bookmaker-implied 45.5% — a clear edge.

+12.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-027.1%0-19.0%0-21.5%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-026.4%1-18.7%1-21.4%1-30.2%1-4+0.0%2 2-012.9%2-14.3%2-20.7%2-30.1%2-4+0.0%3 3-04.2%3-11.4%3-20.2%3-30.0%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-10.4%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.1% 45.5% 2.20 +12.4%

Draw 36.5% 35.1% 2.85 +4.0%

Away win 12.3% 29.4% 3.40 -58.2%

Over 2.5 14.4% 33.9% 2.95 -57.5%

Over 3.5 4.4% — — —

BTTS 17.6% 43.5% 2.30 -59.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 30 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 37%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 40%

Score Hit 47%

ROI 22.0%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 49%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)0.3 BTTS prob17.6%

H 51% / xG 1.0-0.3 / U2.5 14% / NoBTTS 18%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 27.1%

#2 1–0 26.4%

#3 2–0 12.9%

#4 0–1✓ 9.0%

#5 1–1 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Meknes1.0

Difaa El Jadida0.3

COMBINED 1.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 14.4% · O3.5 PROB 4.4%

Form & verdict PPG

MEKNES · PPG 2.38

DIFAA EL JADIDA · PPG 1.29

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

Chance this pick lands

47%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.38) vs P(Home)=51.1%

Win probability 1X2

Meknes (H) 51.1%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV +12.4%

Draw 36.5%

ODDS 2.85 · IMPLIED 35.1% EV +4.0%

Difaa El Jadida (A) 12.3%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -58.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Meknes face Difaa El Jadida in Morocco - Botola Pro on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Meknes a 51% chance, the draw 37% and Difaa El Jadida 12%, so Meknes are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Meknes and 0.3 for Difaa El Jadida (1.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 14% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 18% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Meknes are averaging 2.38 points per game versus 1.29 for Difaa El Jadida. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +12.4%. This match finished 0-1.

Meknes vs Difaa El Jadida Prediction— Morocco - Botola Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

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