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Antequera vs Eldense Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2

Group 2 - 34 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 16:30

Antequera

PPG 1.19 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Eldense

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 50.2% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.0%0-18.4%0-24.4%0-31.5%0-4+0.5%1 1-011.8%1-112.4%1-26.5%1-32.3%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.7%2-19.2%2-24.8%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-04.3%3-14.5%3-22.4%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.2%4+-12.3%4+-21.2%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.1% 33.3% 3.00 +41.3%

Draw 26.1% 32.3% 3.10 -19.1%

Away win 26.8% 44.4% 2.25 -39.7%

Over 2.5 46.4% 45.5% 2.20 +2.1%

Over 3.5 24.9% 23.8% 4.20 +4.6%

BTTS 50.2% 54.1% 1.85 -7.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 59 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 25.4%

Bet Hit 70%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 22%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob50.2%

H 47% / xG 1.5-1.1 / O2.5 46% / BTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.4%

#2 1–0 11.8%

#3 2–1✓ 9.2%

#4 2–0 8.7%

#5 0–1 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Antequera1.5

Eldense1.1

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.4% · O3.5 PROB 24.9%

Form & verdict PPG

ANTEQUERA · PPG 1.19

ELDENSE · PPG 1.25

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.19), Away AVERAGE (1.25)

Win probability 1X2

Antequera (H) 47.1%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV +41.3%

Draw 26.1%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -19.1%

Eldense (A) 26.8%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -39.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Antequera face Eldense in Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Antequera a 47% chance, the draw 26% and Eldense 27%, so Antequera are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Antequera and 1.1 for Eldense (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Antequera are averaging 1.19 points per game versus 1.25 for Eldense. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +41.3%. This match finished 2-1.

Antequera vs Eldense Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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