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Araz vs Turan Prediction— Azerbaijan - Premyer Liqa

Regular Season - 28 ·Friday, April 17, 2026, 13:00

Araz

PPG 1.77 · HOME

0 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

Turan

PPG 1.86 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 60.1% vs bookmaker-implied 45.5% — a clear edge.

+32.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.2%0-115.3%0-212.7%0-37.1%0-4+4.3%1 1-06.6%1-111.0%1-29.2%1-35.1%1-4+3.1%2 2-02.4%2-14.0%2-23.3%2-31.8%2-4+1.1%3 3-00.6%3-11.0%3-20.8%3-30.4%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.2%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 15.9% 30.3% 3.30 -47.5%

Draw 24.0% 33.9% 2.95 -29.2%

Away win 60.1% 45.5% 2.20 +32.2%

Over 2.5 42.8% 51.8% 1.93 -17.4%

Over 3.5 21.9% 30.8% 3.25 -28.8%

BTTS 41.7% 59.9% 1.67 -30.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 69%

ROI 23.6%

Bet Hit 74%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 47%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-3

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob41.7%

A 60% / xG 0.7-1.7 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 42%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 15.3%

#2 0–2 12.7%

#3 1–1 11.0%

#4 1–2 9.2%

#5 0–0 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Araz0.7

Turan1.7

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 42.8% · O3.5 PROB 21.9%

Form & verdict PPG

ARAZ · PPG 1.77

TURAN · PPG 1.86

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.77), Away GOOD (1.86)

Win probability 1X2

Araz (H) 15.9%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -47.5%

Draw 24.0%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV -29.2%

Turan (A) 60.1%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV +32.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Araz face Turan in Azerbaijan - Premyer Liqa on Friday, April 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Araz a 16% chance, the draw 24% and Turan 60%, so Turan are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for Araz and 1.7 for Turan (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 42% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Araz are averaging 1.77 points per game versus 1.86 for Turan. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +32.2%. This match finished 0-3.

Araz vs Turan Prediction— Azerbaijan - Premyer Liqa

Match Preview & Prediction

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