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Linfield vs Cliftonville Prediction— Northern-Ireland - Premiership

Championship Group - 38 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 16:30

Linfield

PPG 2.28 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Cliftonville

PPG 1.06 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 73.3% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7% — a clear edge.

+18.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.0%0-13.5%0-21.2%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-011.5%1-18.1%1-22.8%1-30.7%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.2%2-19.2%2-23.2%2-30.7%2-4+0.2%3 3-010.1%3-17.0%3-22.5%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-09.9%4+-16.9%4+-22.4%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 73.3% 61.7% 1.62 +18.8%

Draw 17.0% 26.7% 3.75 -36.3%

Away win 9.7% 21.7% 4.60 -55.4%

Over 2.5 57.4% 61.7% 1.62 -7.0%

Over 3.5 35.0% 39.2% 2.55 -10.8%

BTTS 45.1% 62.5% 1.60 -27.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 6 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 83%

BTTS 83%

Score Hit 0%

ROI 29.7%

Bet Hit 83%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 62%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob45.1%

H 73% / xG 2.3-0.7 / O2.5 57% / NoBTTS 45%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 13.2%

#2 1–0 11.5%

#3 3–0 10.1%

#4 2–1 9.2%

#5 1–1 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Linfield2.3

Cliftonville0.7

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 57.4% · O3.5 PROB 35.0%

Form & verdict PPG

LINFIELD · PPG 2.28

CLIFTONVILLE · PPG 1.06

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

98%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.28), Away AVERAGE (1.06) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Linfield (H) 73.3%

ODDS 1.62 · IMPLIED 61.7% EV +18.8%

Draw 17.0%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -36.3%

Cliftonville (A) 9.7%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV -55.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Linfield face Cliftonville in Northern-Ireland - Premiership on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Linfield a 73% chance, the draw 17% and Cliftonville 10%, so Linfield are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Linfield and 0.7 for Cliftonville (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 57% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Linfield are averaging 2.28 points per game versus 1.06 for Cliftonville. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +18.8%. This match finished 1-2.

Linfield vs Cliftonville Prediction— Northern-Ireland - Premiership

Match Preview & Prediction

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