Today / Northern-Ireland - Premiership / Coleraine FC vs Crusaders FC

Coleraine FC vs Crusaders FC Prediction— Northern-Ireland - Premiership

Matchday 5 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 17:00

Coleraine FC

PPG 1.99 · HOME

LAST 5

WDWW ·

UPCOMING

Crusaders FC

PPG 1.34 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWWW ·

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 66.1% vs bookmaker-implied 82.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.1%0-14.1%0-22.0%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-09.0%1-18.9%1-24.4%1-31.5%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.9%2-19.9%2-24.9%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-07.3%3-17.2%3-23.6%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-06.7%4+-16.7%4+-23.3%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.3% 85.5% 1.17 -33.0%

Draw 21.3% 13.3% 7.50 +35.9%

Away win 21.4% 9.1% 11.00 +81.2%

Over 2.5 60.9% 71.4% 1.40 -14.7%

Over 3.5 37.7% 52.4% 1.91 -28.0%

BTTS 55.9% 52.4% 1.91 +6.8%

Home O1.5 66.1% 82.0% 1.22 -19.4%

Away O1.5 29.7% 20.0% 5.00 +29.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 15 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 13%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 45%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob55.9%

H 57% / xG 2.2-1.0 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.9%

#2 2–0 9.9%

#3 2–1 9.9%

#4 1–0 9.0%

#5 3–0 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Coleraine FC2.2

Crusaders FC1.0

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.9% · O3.5 PROB 37.7%

Form & verdict PPG

COLERAINE FC · PPG 1.99

CRUSADERS FC · PPG 1.34

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.21 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Coleraine FC (H) 57.3%

ODDS 1.17 · IMPLIED 85.5% EV -33.0%

Draw 21.3%

ODDS 7.50 · IMPLIED 13.3% EV +35.9%

Crusaders FC (A) 21.4%

ODDS 11.00 · IMPLIED 9.1% EV +81.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Coleraine FC face Crusaders FC in Northern-Ireland - Premiership on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Coleraine FC a 57% chance, the draw 21% and Crusaders FC 21%, so Coleraine FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Coleraine FC and 1.0 for Crusaders FC (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Coleraine FC are averaging 1.99 points per game versus 1.34 for Crusaders FC. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +100.7%.

Coleraine FC vs Crusaders FC Prediction— Northern-Ireland - Premiership

Match Preview & Prediction

More Northern-Ireland - Premiership Predictions