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Bangor vs Ballymena United Prediction— Northern-Ireland - Premiership

Matchday 5 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 14:00

Bangor

PPG 0.86 · HOME

LAST 5

LLL ··

UPCOMING

Ballymena United

PPG 1.22 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLL ··

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.4% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.1%0-19.6%0-27.6%0-34.0%0-4+2.2%1 1-07.4%1-111.7%1-29.3%1-34.9%1-4+2.7%2 2-04.5%2-17.2%2-25.6%2-33.0%2-4+1.7%3 3-01.8%3-12.9%3-22.3%3-31.2%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-11.2%4+-20.9%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 29.1% 25.0% 4.00 +9.8%

Draw 23.8% 28.6% 3.50 -10.0%

Away win 47.1% 55.6% 1.80 -15.2%

Over 2.5 53.8% 55.6% 1.80 -3.2%

Over 3.5 33.2% 33.3% 3.00 -0.4%

BTTS 55.4% 58.8% 1.70 -5.8%

Home O1.5 33.5% 30.8% 3.25 +8.9%

Away O1.5 47.9% 55.6% 1.80 -13.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 15 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 13%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 36%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob55.4%

A 47% / xG 1.2-1.6 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.7%

#2 1–2 9.3%

#3 0–1 9.6%

#4 0–2 7.6%

#5 2–1 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bangor1.2

Ballymena United1.6

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 33.2%

Form & verdict PPG

BANGOR · PPG 0.86

BALLYMENA UNITED · PPG 1.22

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.36 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Bangor (H) 29.1%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV +9.8%

Draw 23.8%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -10.0%

Ballymena United (A) 47.1%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -15.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bangor face Ballymena United in Northern-Ireland - Premiership on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bangor a 29% chance, the draw 24% and Ballymena United 47%, so Ballymena United are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Bangor and 1.6 for Ballymena United (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bangor are averaging 0.86 points per game versus 1.22 for Ballymena United. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +29.1%.

Bangor vs Ballymena United Prediction— Northern-Ireland - Premiership

Match Preview & Prediction

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