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Glentoran vs Crusaders FC Prediction— Northern-Ireland - Premiership

Matchday 4 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 14:00

Glentoran

PPG 2.05 · HOME

LAST 5

WLWL ·

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME O1.5

Crusaders FC

PPG 1.06 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWWW ·

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 58.9% vs bookmaker-implied 76.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.4%0-14.7%0-22.5%0-30.9%0-4+0.3%1 1-09.0%1-19.7%1-25.2%1-31.9%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.2%2-19.9%2-25.3%2-31.9%2-4+0.6%3 3-06.3%3-16.8%3-23.6%3-31.3%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-05.2%4+-15.6%4+-23.0%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.5% 80.0% 1.25 -33.1%

Draw 22.7% 16.7% 6.00 +21.7%

Away win 23.8% 11.1% 9.00 +68.5%

Over 2.5 59.8% 69.4% 1.44 -13.9%

Over 3.5 37.4% 47.6% 2.10 -21.5%

BTTS 59.9% 54.1% 1.85 +10.8%

Home O1.5 58.9% 76.9% 1.30 -23.4%

Away O1.5 32.6% 20.0% 5.00 +63.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 15 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 13%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 54%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob59.9%

H 54% / xG 2.1-1.1 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.7%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0 9.2%

#4 1–2✓ 5.2%

#5 1–0 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Glentoran2.1

Crusaders FC1.1

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.8% · O3.5 PROB 37.4%

Form & verdict PPG

GLENTORAN · PPG 2.05

CRUSADERS FC · PPG 1.06

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.98 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Glentoran (H) 53.5%

ODDS 1.25 · IMPLIED 80.0% EV -33.1%

Draw 22.7%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV +21.7%

Crusaders FC (A) 23.8%

ODDS 9.00 · IMPLIED 11.1% EV +68.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Glentoran face Crusaders FC in Northern-Ireland - Premiership on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Glentoran a 54% chance, the draw 23% and Crusaders FC 24%, so Glentoran are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Glentoran and 1.1 for Crusaders FC (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Glentoran are averaging 2.05 points per game versus 1.06 for Crusaders FC. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +68.7%. This match finished 1-2.

Glentoran vs Crusaders FC Prediction— Northern-Ireland - Premiership

Match Preview & Prediction

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