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Carrick Rangers vs Coleraine FC Prediction— Northern-Ireland - Premiership

Matchday 3 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 14:00

Carrick Rangers

PPG 1.65 · HOME

LAST 5

WWLW ·

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Coleraine FC

PPG 1.86 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDWW ·

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.1% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.7%0-19.3%0-26.5%0-33.0%0-4+1.4%1 1-08.8%1-112.2%1-28.5%1-34.0%1-4+1.9%2 2-05.7%2-18.0%2-25.6%2-32.6%2-4+1.2%3 3-02.5%3-13.5%3-22.4%3-31.1%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.5%4+-21.1%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.0% 28.6% 3.50 +26.0%

Draw 27.3% 26.7% 3.75 +1.4%

Away win 36.7% 54.6% 1.83 -32.8%

Over 2.5 50.2% 60.6% 1.65 -17.2%

Over 3.5 30.9% 38.2% 2.62 -19.0%

BTTS 53.1% 63.7% 1.57 -16.6%

Home O1.5 37.8% 38.5% 2.60 -1.7%

Away O1.5 41.2% 58.8% 1.70 -30.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 15 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 13%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 23%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob53.1%

A 37% / xG 1.3-1.4 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.2%

#2 2–1 8.0%

#3 1–2 8.5%

#4 0–0 6.7%

#5 1–0 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Carrick Rangers1.3

Coleraine FC1.4

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.2% · O3.5 PROB 30.9%

Form & verdict PPG

CARRICK RANGERS · PPG 1.65

COLERAINE FC · PPG 1.86

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.08 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Carrick Rangers (H) 36.0%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV +26.0%

Draw 27.3%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV +1.4%

Coleraine FC (A) 36.7%

ODDS 1.83 · IMPLIED 54.6% EV -32.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Carrick Rangers face Coleraine FC in Northern-Ireland - Premiership on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Carrick Rangers a 36% chance, the draw 27% and Coleraine FC 37%, so Coleraine FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Carrick Rangers and 1.4 for Coleraine FC (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Carrick Rangers are averaging 1.65 points per game versus 1.86 for Coleraine FC. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +20.5%. This match finished 0-2.

Carrick Rangers vs Coleraine FC Prediction— Northern-Ireland - Premiership

Match Preview & Prediction

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