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Larne vs Glentoran Prediction— Northern-Ireland - Premiership

Matchday 5 ·Friday, September 4, 2026, 18:45

Larne

PPG 1.96 · HOME

LAST 5

D ····

UPCOMING

Glentoran

PPG 1.73 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLWL ·

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.9% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.8%0-18.6%0-25.4%0-32.3%0-4+0.9%1 1-09.7%1-112.2%1-27.7%1-33.2%1-4+1.3%2 2-07.0%2-18.8%2-25.5%2-32.3%2-4+1.0%3 3-03.3%3-14.2%3-22.6%3-31.1%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-12.0%4+-21.3%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.3% 41.7% 2.40 -0.9%

Draw 27.9% 31.3% 3.20 -6.4%

Away win 30.8% 37.0% 2.70 -16.8%

Over 2.5 50.6% 47.6% 2.10 +6.3%

Over 3.5 30.8% 27.0% 3.70 +14.0%

BTTS 52.9% 55.6% 1.80 -4.8%

Home O1.5 39.9% 40.8% 2.45 -2.2%

Away O1.5 36.8% 38.2% 2.62 -3.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 15 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 13%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 24%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob52.9%

H 41% / xG 1.4-1.3 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.2%

#2 2–1 8.8%

#3 1–0 9.7%

#4 0–0 6.8%

#5 1–2 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Larne1.4

Glentoran1.3

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.6% · O3.5 PROB 30.8%

Form & verdict PPG

LARNE · PPG 1.96

GLENTORAN · PPG 1.73

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.17 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Larne (H) 41.3%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV -0.9%

Draw 27.9%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -6.4%

Glentoran (A) 30.8%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -16.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Larne face Glentoran in Northern-Ireland - Premiership on Friday, September 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Larne a 41% chance, the draw 28% and Glentoran 31%, so Larne are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Larne and 1.3 for Glentoran (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Larne are averaging 1.96 points per game versus 1.73 for Glentoran. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +14.0%.

Larne vs Glentoran Prediction— Northern-Ireland - Premiership

Match Preview & Prediction

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